dr Ireneusz Wlodarczyk
astrobit@ka.onet.pl
----------------------------------
Aktualizacja : 19 pazdziernika 2012 r.
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W tym miejscu podawane sa wyniki obliczen orbit zderzeniowych 
****************IMPACT ORBITS OF DANGEROUS ASTEROIDS***********************
COMPUTED BY @ IRENEUSZ WLODARCZYK USING ORBFIT SOFTWARE
***************************************************************************
dla aktualnie groznych dla Ziemi planetoid znajdujacych sie na liscie NASA.
Ze wzgledu na to, ze wiekszosc programow z ktorych korzystam, sa ze strefy anglojezycznej,
niektore wyniki podawane sa rowniez w j. angielskim.
Wstep do teorii orbit zderzeniowych podany jest na naszej stronie:
http://www.planetarium.edu.pl/irek/orb_zderz.pdf
Orbity zderzeniowe planetoid obliczone przez prof. dr. hab. Grzegorza Sitarskiego oraz dr. hab. Malgorzate Krolikowska Soltan podawane sa na stronie CBK PAN w Warszawie:
http://phas.cbk.waw.pl/neo_impact.htm
*************
PONIZEJ RZOWIAZANIA ZDERZENIOWE DLA PLANETOID: 
(99942) Apophis, 2012 QD8, 2012 PB20, 2012 DA14 (p. praca MNRAS 2012),2012 BU61,
(101955) 1999 RQ36,
2012BU61, 2012 BU1, (29075) 1950 DA, 2011 XM1, 2011 UZ255, 2011 UE305, 2011 LT17, 2011 SR5, 
2011 AG5, 2011 PU1, 2011 OB26, 2011 FQ6, 2005 YU55, 2011 GN44, (99942) Apophis, 2011 BM45, 
2011 AL52, 2010 XC25, 2009FD, 2010 UT7, 2009 BD, 2010 MY112, 2010 NY65,(101955) 1999 RQ36, 
(153814) 2001 WN5, 2010HQ80, 2010JU39, 2010FD, (153814)2001WN5, 2005 YU55, 52010CA, 
(153814)2001 WN5, 2010CA, 2009XO, 2009WM1, 2009VA, 2009SH1, 2009SD15, 2009RN, 
2009OW6, 2009FJ, 2009KK8, 2009KN4, 2009KK, 2009JF1, 2007RY17, 2009FJ, 2009BD oraz 2009BR5
UWAGA: KOLEJNO OD GORY SA NAJBARDZIEJ AKTUALNE WYNIKI OBLICZEN DLA DANEJ GROZNEJ DLA ZIEMI PLANETOIDY.
---------------
Oto moja orbita zderzeniowa planetoidy (99942) Apophis na 2069 r.
w oparciu o jej 1525 obserwacje optyczne i 7 obserwacji radarowych z okresu:
2004 03 15.10789 do 2012 05 08.27193
z uwzglednieniem obliczonego przeze mnie parametru da/dt=(+51.0+/-1.0)e-4 AU/Myr.
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.503"
Startowa orbita zderzeniowa na 2069 r.:
Epoka JD2456200.5 = 2012 Sep 30
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   9.22313945329629E-01 0.191061957174242   3.3319971702270 204.4275753029069 126.4187791456490  12.6904757685728
 MAG  19.124  0.150
! RMS    6.28244E-09   3.09626E-08   9.73167E-07   3.06092E-05   3.08174E-05   3.10118E-05
 Close approach to EARTH on 2013/01/09.48839 56301.48839 MJD at 0.09666162 AU.
 Close approach to VENUS on 2016/04/24.11798 57502.11798 MJD at 0.07824177 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2029/04/13.90736 62239.90736 MJD at 0.00026259 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2052/04/12.86276 70639.86276 MJD at 0.00751849 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2061/09/15.01867 74082.01867 MJD at 0.04099829 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2069/04/13.07786 76849.07786 MJD at 0.00001332 AU.
 Impact Probability   4.744E-006
 mass, impact velocity, energy
 2.10D+10 kg 12.63 km/s  3.99D+02 MT
  expected E, background prob, ratio, scale value
 1.89D-03 MT  2.49D-04 backgr  3.37D-04 ratio  -3.47 scale
     date         MJD       sigma sigimp   dist +/-   width    stretch    p_RE    exp. en.    PS
   YYYY/MM                                 (RE)       (RE)      RE/sig               MT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2069/04/13.079  76849.079  -1.4640 0.000    0.96 +/-    0.000  1.11E+05  4.74E-06  1.89E-03  -3.47
Orbita zderzeniowa, rms=0.504"
Epoka JD2476842.5 = 2069 Apr. 6
1.086475106407265 .1851062512072943 2.314442304217808 202.7155028841644 75.58090875465506 298.0584245101548
Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE405. Uwzglednilem perturbacje od trzech dodatkowych masywnych planetoid: Ceres,
Pallas i Westy z masami obliczonymi przez S. Chesleya. Poprzednio byly masy wg Hilton, J. L. 1997, 
New Asteroid Ephemerides for the Astronomical Almanac, tak jak to stosuje A. Milani. Jednak niewiele to zmienia.
W obu przypadkach mam obliczone tylko mozliwe zderzenie w 2069 r. Innych nie ma.
--------------
Obliczylem prognozowana orbite zderzeniowa planetoidy 2012 QD8 na 2050r.
w oparciu o jej 42 obserwacje optyczne z okresu:
2012 08 17.44424 do 2012 09 06.04738
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.425"
Startowa orbita zderzeniowa na 2047 r.:
Epoka JD2456200.5 = 2012 Sep 30
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.91942286524044E+00 0.699810378271380   5.5933925785059 349.4997007488377  86.8923229581164 349.9766129163414
 MAG  23.036  0.150
! RMS    2.78805E-03   5.50971E-04   4.44890E-03   1.78405E-03   2.69853E-03   2.89259E-02
 Close approach to EARTH on 2012/09/09.16184 56179.16184 MJD at 0.04351430 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2020/09/03.46597 59095.46597 MJD at 0.06204889 AU.
 Close approach to VENUS on 2028/11/05.55534 62080.55534 MJD at 0.06419195 AU.
 Close approach to VENUS on 2036/10/24.96518 64990.96518 MJD at 0.06589692 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2050/03/10.79265 69875.79265 MJD at 0.03844798 AU.

 Impact Probability   1.3439E-005
 mass, impact velocity, energy
 7.98D+08 kg 23.59 km/s  5.28D+01 MT
  expected E, background prob, ratio, scale value
 7.10D-04 MT  1.26D-03 backgr  2.86D-04 ratio  -3.54 scale
     date         MJD       sigma sigimp   dist +/-   width    stretch    p_RE    exp. en.    PS
   YYYY/MM                                 (RE)       (RE)      RE/sig               MT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2050/03/08.680  69873.680   2.3161 0.000    0.14 +/-    0.020  4.59E+03  1.34E-05  7.10E-04  -3.54
Prognozowana orbita zderzeniowa:
Epoka JD2469866.5 = 2050 Mar. 1
1.920035626803953 .6989565808506448 5.586795093729358 347.5868570989132 89.08305757232718  13.68642731892327
Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE405. Uwzglednilem perturbacje od 4. dodatkowych masywnych planetoid: 
Ceres, Pallas, Westy i Hygiei.
Efektów Yarkovskiego/YORPa nie uwzględniałem.
---------------
Obliczylem orbite zderzeniowa planetoidy 2012 QD8 na 2047r.
w oparciu o jej 42 obserwacje optyczne z okresu:
2012 08 17.44424 do 2012 09 06.04738
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.425"
Startowa orbita zderzeniowa na 2047 r.:
Epoka JD2456200.5 = 2012 Sep 30
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.91284146957287E+00 0.698503818877868   5.5828426931509 349.5039196901947  86.8859243464400 349.9079335481576
 MAG  23.041  0.150
! RMS    2.76080E-03   5.50505E-04   4.44440E-03   1.78149E-03   2.69312E-03   2.89774E-02
 Close approach to EARTH on 2012/09/09.16183 56179.16183 MJD at 0.04341737 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2020/07/15.94471 59045.94471 MJD at 0.08814206 AU.
 Close approach to VENUS on 2020/10/26.65389 59148.65389 MJD at 0.06436794 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2026/03/08.13749 61107.13749 MJD at 0.00655273 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2033/09/14.09070 63854.09070 MJD at 0.08823300 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2041/09/03.45601 66765.45601 MJD at 0.05907032 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2047/03/08.97131 68777.97131 MJD at 0.00000882 AU.!!!
 Impact Probability   3.252E-006
 mass, impact velocity, energy
 7.92D+08 kg 23.58 km/s  5.24D+01 MT
  expected E, background prob, ratio, scale value
 1.70D-04 MT  1.26D-03 backgr  7.47D-05 ratio  -4.13 scale
    date         MJD       sigma sigimp   dist +/-   width    stretch    p_RE    exp. en.    PS
   YYYY/MM                                 (RE)       (RE)      RE/sig               MT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2047/03/08.971  68777.971   0.5594 0.000    0.31 +/-    0.020  2.29E+05  3.25E-06  1.70E-04  -4.13
Orbita zderzeniowa:
Epoka JD2468770.5 = 2047 Mar. 1
1.90218230852328 .6971608114303952 5.604509108749012 347.6343291342933 88.78157479634137  14.62889774971794
Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE405. Uwzglednilem perturbacje od 4. dodatkowych masywnych planetoid: 
Ceres, Pallas, Westy i Hygiei.
Efektów Yarkovskiego/YORPa nie uwzględniałem.

--------------
Obliczylem orbite zderzeniowa planetoidy 2012 PB20 na 2066r.
w oparciu o jej 43 obserwacje optyczne z okresu:
2012 08 14.48152 do 2012 09 22.29529
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.511"
Startowa orbita zderzeniowa na 2066 r.:
Epoka JD2456200.5 = 2012 Sep 30
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.05403944550640E+00 0.094954485812833   5.8402288539062 142.9367333667161  49.9795067423512 164.4443526107995
 MAG  24.874  0.150
! RMS    2.93633E-05   4.78167E-05   2.94013E-03   7.85351E-04   7.61803E-03   1.49114E-02
 Close approach to EARTH on 2025/02/10.02786 60716.02786 MJD at 0.00771586 AU.!!
 Close approach to EARTH on 2042/02/10.06734 66925.06734 MJD at 0.00695136 AU.!!
 Close approach to EARTH on 2043/07/31.29707 67461.29707 MJD at 0.04421778 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2066/02/10.53931 75691.53931 MJD at 0.00002547 AU.
 Impact Probability   1.9606E-007
 mass, impact velocity, energy
 6.29D+07 kg 11.88 km/s  1.06D+00 MT
  expected E, background prob, ratio, scale value
 2.07D-07 MT  2.87D-02 backgr  1.28D-07 ratio  -6.89 scale
     date         MJD       sigma sigimp   dist +/-   width    stretch    p_RE    exp. en.    PS
   YYYY/MM                                 (RE)       (RE)      RE/sig               MT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2066/02/10.540  75691.540   0.775 0.000    2.22 +/-    0.000  5.88E+06  1.96E-07  2.07E-07  -6.8
Orbita zderzeniowa:
Epoka JD2475684.5 = 2066 Feb. 3
1.028521883381347 8.02977027690461E-002 6.136241171147887 141.4832174875175 63.55790275091758  297.0450124765566
Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE405. Uwzglednilem perturbacje od 3. dodatkowych masywnych planetoid: 
Ceres, Pallas i Westy.
Efektów Yarkovskiego/YORPa nie uwzględniałem.
Sa dwie 'dziurki od klucza' w 2025 i 2042 r. Mam wynik podobny do NASA.

----------------
Obliczylem 3 prognozowane orbity zderzeniowe planetoidy 2012 BU61
w oparciu o jej 29 optyczne obserwacje z okresu:
2012 01 26.09410 do 2012 01 31.13115
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.4919"
Epoka JD2456000.5 = 2012 Mar 14
klon=10602; mozliwe zderzenie: 2069/01/02.785 z prawdop.   1.64E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.42648962298536E+00 0.772497078343433   5.2081255255982 297.8772718354701  72.1142848166599  28.9767516455154
! RMS    1.04488E-01   1.02430E-02   7.48500E-02   1.06210E-01   2.86004E-01   1.95130E+00

klon=9554; mozliwe zderzenie: 2090/01/01.808 z prawdop.   4.46E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.39422696250696E+00 0.769289344074601   5.1846594420145 297.9106023608908  72.0253277022303  29.5899563086866
! RMS    1.00782E-01   1.01679E-02   7.44651E-02   1.05847E-01   2.84730E-01   1.94953E+00
 
klon=9609; mozliwe zderzenie: 2090/01/01.838 z prawdop.   2.47E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.39589136724801E+00 0.769457098991129   5.1858879321295 297.9088560126243  72.0299862398952  29.5577895800970
! RMS    1.00966E-01   1.01712E-02   7.44808E-02   1.05860E-01   2.84780E-01   1.94951E+00
Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE405. Uwzglednilem perturbacje od 4. dodatkowych masywnych planetoid: 
Ceres, Pallas, Westy i Hygiei.
Zastosowalem nowy model bledow obserwatoriow i odchylek katalogow gwiazd oporowych wg teorii Milaniego i innych
stosowanych przez nich w swoich obliczeniach zderzeniowych.
Efektów Yarkovskiego/YORPa nie uwzględniłem.
----------------

Obliczylem orbite zderzeniowa planetoidy (101955) 1999RQ36 na 2175  r.
uwzgledniajac jej efekty niegrawitacyjne
w oparciu o jej 535 obserwacje optyczne i 29 obserwacje radarowe z okresu:
1999 09 11.40624 do 2012 05 03.12010 
Orbita nominalna z efektami niegrawitacyjnymi rms=3.81456E-01"
Obliczone da/dt=(-19.0+/-0.5) 10^-4 AU/Myr.
Startowa orbita zderzeniowa na 2175 r.:
Epoka JD2456000.5 = 2012 Mar 14
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.12603800970089E+00 0.203699463799342   6.0354105435188   2.0516150463783  66.2666795103977 102.8658098597570
 MAG  20.642  0.150
! RMS    4.33883E-11   2.07863E-08   2.54227E-06   3.46376E-06   4.72233E-06   2.34385E-06
 Close approach to EARTH on 2005/09/20.44528 53633.44528 MJD at 0.03313040 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 1999/09/22.76422 51443.76422 MJD at 0.01468639 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2037/02/11.56139 65100.56139 MJD at 0.09871327 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2043/02/09.76131 67289.76131 MJD at 0.09662673 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2054/09/30.04164 71540.04164 MJD at 0.03929915 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2060/09/23.02529 73725.02529 MJD at 0.00500807 AU.-dziurka od klucza
 Close approach to EARTH on 2068/02/15.13982 76426.13982 MJD at 0.07047167 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2080/09/22.02779 81029.02779 MJD at 0.01551728 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2087/10/01.99089 83594.99089 MJD at 0.05237796 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2102/02/17.42177 88846.42177 MJD at 0.08026220 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2135/09/25.47238101119.47238 MJD at 0.00253218 AU.-dziurka od klucza
 Close approach to EARTH on 2142/02/07.21877103446.21877 MJD at 0.09924468 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2175/09/25.15521115729.15521 MJD at 0.00001005 AU.!!!
 Impact Probability   1.018E-004
  risk case analysed for Palermo scale
 mass, impact velocity, energy
 2.26D+11 kg 12.68 km/s  4.33D+03 MT
  expected E, background prob, ratio, scale value
 4.40D-01 MT  3.70D-05 backgr  1.68D-02 ratio  -1.77 scale
     date         MJD       sigma sigimp   dist +/-   width    stretch    p_RE    exp. en.    PS
   YYYY/MM                                 (RE)       (RE)      RE/sig               MT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2175/09/25.155 115729.155   0.0122 0.000    0.96 +/-    0.000  1.49E+04  1.02E-04  4.40E-01  -1.77
Orbita zderzeniowa:
Epoka JD2515722.5 = 2175 Sep. 18
1.137114510990753 .2042908498500562 6.303366635920471 359.7184921292837 65.1760758686392  308.7436169334243
Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE405. Uwzglednilem perturbacje od 4. dodatkowych masywnych planetoid: 
Ceres, Pallas, Westy i Hygiei.
Zastosowalem model bledow obserwatoriow i odchylek katalogow gwiazd oporowych wg teorii Milaniego i innych
stosowanych przez nich w obliczeniach zderzeniowych.
Planetoida trzyma sie na kursie kolizyjnym z Ziemia!
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Obliczylem 3 prognozowane orbity zderzeniowe planetoidy 2012 BU61
w oparciu o jej 29 optyczne obserwacje z okresu:
2012 01 26.09410 do 2012 01 31.13115
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.4919"
Epoka JD2456000.5 = 2012 Mar 14
klon=10602; mozliwe zderzenie: 2069/01/02.785 z prawdop.   1.64E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.42648962298536E+00 0.772497078343433   5.2081255255982 297.8772718354701  72.1142848166599  28.9767516455154
! RMS    1.04488E-01   1.02430E-02   7.48500E-02   1.06210E-01   2.86004E-01   1.95130E+00

klon=9554; mozliwe zderzenie: 2090/01/01.808 z prawdop.   4.46E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.39422696250696E+00 0.769289344074601   5.1846594420145 297.9106023608908  72.0253277022303  29.5899563086866
! RMS    1.00782E-01   1.01679E-02   7.44651E-02   1.05847E-01   2.84730E-01   1.94953E+00
 
klon=9609; mozliwe zderzenie: 2090/01/01.838 z prawdop.   2.47E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.39589136724801E+00 0.769457098991129   5.1858879321295 297.9088560126243  72.0299862398952  29.5577895800970
! RMS    1.00966E-01   1.01712E-02   7.44808E-02   1.05860E-01   2.84780E-01   1.94951E+00
Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE405. Uwzglednilem perturbacje od 4. dodatkowych masywnych planetoid: 
Ceres, Pallas, Westy i Hygiei.
Zastosowalem nowy model bledow obserwatoriow i odchylek katalogow gwiazd oporowych wg teorii Milaniego i innych
stosowanych przez nich w swoich obliczeniach zderzeniowych.
Efektów Yarkovskiego/YORPa nie uwzględniłem.
---------------
Obliczylem 3 prognozowane orbity zderzeniowe planetoidy 2012 BU1
w oparciu o jej 31 optyczne obserwacje z okresu:
2012 01 18.32077 do 2012 01 25.43338
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.5756"
Epoka JD2456000.5 = 2012 Mar 14
klon=7347; mozliwe zderzenie: 2086/01/13.109 z prawdop.   4.89E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.61180329453328E+00 0.441805921710080   0.4240991231297 294.9979340023594 133.2176880796081  45.2609577672699
! RMS    1.43802E-03   5.49649E-04   4.42496E-04   3.37527E-04   3.55261E-03   6.38048E-02
 
klon=601; mozliwe zderzenie: 2087/01/13.388 z prawdop.   2.82E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.60986909980645E+00 0.441065644596588   0.4235052642472 294.9981641702073 133.2223005443435  45.3469171021704
! RMS    1.42918E-03   5.47771E-04   4.41278E-04   3.36972E-04   3.54870E-03   6.36147E-02
 
klon=731; mozliwe zderzenie: 2090/01/13.363 z prawdop.   2.30E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.60990626039928E+00 0.441079886281644   0.4235166927729 294.9981597481072 133.2222117106452  45.3452630337654
! RMS    1.42935E-03   5.47805E-04   4.41300E-04   3.36983E-04   3.54876E-03   6.36181E-02
Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE405. Uwzglednilem perturbacje od 4. dodatkowych masywnych planetoid: 
Ceres, Pallas, Westy i Hygiei.
Zastosowalem nowy model bledow obserwatoriow i odchylek katalogow gwiazd oporowych wg teorii Milaniego i innych
stosowanych przez nich w swoich obliczeniach zderzeniowych.
Efektów Yarkovskiego/YORPa nie uwzględniałem.
---------------
Obliczylem orbite zderzeniowa planetoidy (29075) 1950 DA na 2880 r.
w oparciu o jej 386 obserwacje optyczne i 13 obserwacje radarowe z okresu:
1950 02 22.23014 do 2012 01 31.86155         
Orbita nominalna ma rms= 0.5322"
Startowa orbita zderzeniowa na 2880 r.:
Epoka JD2456000.5 = 2012 Mar 14
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.69855351337119E+00 0.508376292394500  12.1752164814326 356.7420070454434 224.6086575290871 335.0862689100360
! RMS    1.17149E-09   3.56926E-08   6.35398E-06   9.20567E-06   1.00017E-05   2.53550E-06
 Close approach to EARTH on 2032/03/02.28078 63293.28078 MJD at 0.07575026 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2074/03/19.92992 78650.92992 MJD at 0.09546117 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2105/03/10.06923 89963.06923 MJD at 0.03631605 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2136/03/11.86429 101287.86429 MJD at 0.04259942 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2187/03/08.96709 119911.96709 MJD at 0.03521475 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2218/03/20.45119 131245.45119 MJD at 0.08498735 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2373/03/18.00791 187856.00791 MJD at 0.05902887 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2455/03/06.30440 217794.30440 MJD at 0.08768397 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2539/09/01.73563 248653.73563 MJD at 0.08205285 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2639/05/11.51975 285064.51975 MJD at 0.07046938 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2641/03/14.33049 285737.33049 MJD at 0.01563228 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2736/03/20.92636 320441.92636 MJD at 0.04843963 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2809/03/19.96071 347103.96071 MJD at 0.03342509 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2840/08/15.05431 358575.05431 MJD at 0.07690168 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2860/03/20.24207 365732.24207 MJD at 0.03650895 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2880/03/16.99489 373033.99489 MJD at 0.00001379 AU.!!!
 Impact Probability   2.973E-007
  risk case analysed for Palermo scale
 mass, impact velocity, energy
 3.50D+12 kg 17.99 km/s  1.35D+05 MT
  expected E, background prob, ratio, scale value
 4.01D-02 MT  2.36D-06 backgr  1.45D-04 ratio  -3.84 scale
     date         MJD       sigma sigimp   dist +/-   width    stretch    p_RE    exp. en.    PS
   YYYY/MM                                 (RE)       (RE)      RE/sig               MT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2880/03/16.992 373033.992   4.318 0.000    0.05 +/-    0.001  3.06E+02  2.97E-07  4.01E-02  -3.84

Orbita zderzeniowa:
Epoka JD2773026.5 = 2880 Mar. 09
1.702704426145925 .5134978136909656 11.13205568442159 344.9711747281489 239.0665906318787  337.9990008589042

Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE406. Uwzglednilem perturbacje od 4. dodatkowych masywnych planetoid: 
Ceres, Pallas, Juno i Westy.
Zastosowalem nowy model bledow obserwatoriow i odchylek katalogow gwiazd oporowych wg teorii Milaniego i innych
stosowanych przez nich w swoich obliczeniach zderzeniowych.
Efektów Yarkovskiego/YORPa nie uwzględniłem.
Planetoida nadal na kursie kolizyjnym z Ziemią!
---------------
Obliczylem orbite zderzeniowa planetoidy (29075) 1950 DA na 2880 r.
w oparciu o jej 348 optyczne obserwacje i 13 obserwacje radarowe z okresu:
1950 02 22.23014 do 2012 01 19.21321.
Uwzględnilem efekt Yarkovskiego poprzez dodanie obliczonego przeze mnie paramaetru da/dt=-1.9+/-0.1 10^-4 AU/Myr.
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.539"
Startowa orbita zderzeniowa na 2880 r.:
Epoka JD2455960.5 = 2012 Feb. 03
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.69846167401193E+00 0.508350469478971  12.1751974854004 356.7421209545426 224.6106046259868 317.2725215269698
 MAG  16.927  0.150
! RMS    1.29837E-09   3.61243E-08   7.77074E-06   1.06834E-05   1.10366E-05   2.60418E-06
Close approach to EARTH on 2032/03/02.28062 63293.28062 MJD at 0.07575206 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2074/03/19.92975 78650.92975 MJD at 0.09546013 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2105/03/10.06924 89963.06924 MJD at 0.03631596 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2136/03/11.86434101287.86434 MJD at 0.04259955 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2187/03/08.96711119911.96711 MJD at 0.03521461 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2218/03/20.45105131245.45105 MJD at 0.08498641 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2373/03/18.00793187856.00793 MJD at 0.05902894 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2455/03/06.30429217794.30429 MJD at 0.08768554 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2539/09/01.73562248653.73562 MJD at 0.08205268 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2639/05/11.51972285064.51972 MJD at 0.07046941 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2641/03/14.33047285737.33047 MJD at 0.01563245 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2736/03/20.92642320441.92642 MJD at 0.04844016 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2809/03/19.96060347103.96060 MJD at 0.03342399 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2840/08/15.05453358575.05453 MJD at 0.07690617 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2860/03/20.24283365732.24283 MJD at 0.03651662 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2880/03/16.99117373033.99117 MJD at 0.00000665 AU.!!!
     date         MJD       sigma sigimp   dist +/-   width    stretch    p_RE    exp. en.    PS
   YYYY/MM                                 (RE)       (RE)      RE/sig               MT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2880/03/16.991 373033.991   0.165 0.000    0.22 +/-    0.001  3.36E+02  2.99E-03  4.25E+02   0.18

 Impact Probability   2.990522523152545E-003
 mass, impact velocity, energy
 3.69D+12 kg 17.99 km/s  1.42D+05 MT
  expected E, background prob, ratio, scale value
 4.25D+02 MT  2.26D-06 backgr  1.52D+00 ratio   0.18 scale

*******************
Bez uwzglednienia efektow Yarkovskiego bylo:
     date         MJD       sigma sigimp   dist +/-   width    stretch    p_RE    exp. en.    PS
   YYYY/MM                                 (RE)       (RE)      RE/sig               MT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2880/03/16.991 373033.991   3.51 0.000    0.40 +/-    0.001  3.36E+02  6.45E-06  9.18E-01  -2.48

 Impact Probability   6.454134769334833E-006
 mass, impact velocity, energy
 3.69D+12 kg 17.99 km/s  1.42D+05 MT
  expected E, background prob, ratio, scale value
 9.18D-01 MT  2.26D-06 backgr  3.28D-03 ratio  -2.48 scale
********************
Orbita zderzeniowa:
Epoka JD2773026.5 = 2880 Mar. 09
1.702703897794873 .5134976581344207 11.13205811151982 239.0666067813903 344.9711634106406 337.9999921893836
Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE406. Uwzglednilem perturbacje od 4. dodatkowych masywnych planetoid: 
Ceres, Pallas, Juno i Westy.
Zastosowalem nowy model bledow obserwatoriow i odchylek katalogow gwiazd oporowych wg teorii Milaniego i innych
stosowanych przez nich w obliczeniach zderzeniowych.
---------------
Obliczylem 5 prognozowanych orbit zderzeniowych planetoidy 2011 XM1
w oparciu o jej 10 optycznych obserwacji z okresu:
2011 12 04.59832 do 2011 12 06.50615 
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.1439"
Epoka JD2455800.5 = 2011 Aug. 27
klon=18020 mozliwe zderzenie: 2034/12/20.911 z prawdop.   2.64E-10
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   5.07550997838808E+00 0.819292373305831  12.8700266488530 268.9190161136056 159.8922801231441 353.8502695009437
! RMS    2.08794E+00   7.33336E-02   9.52790E-01   3.12591E+00   2.12637E+00   3.87470E+00

klon=17434 mozliwe zderzenie: 2053/12/19.810 z prawdop.   5.36E-10
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   4.73718866284708E+00 0.806566252299350  12.7202166313128 268.4216966853150 160.1432113930986 353.1634507295678
! RMS    1.77462E+00   7.14951E-02   9.39942E-01   3.08019E+00   2.14694E+00   3.93079E+00
 
klon=16078 mozliwe zderzenie: 2071/12/14.083 z prawdop.   3.78E-10
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   4.12475896202062E+00 0.778243099115958  12.3844386400118 267.3097674911672 160.7209924746449 351.5397820030850
! RMS    1.27885E+00   6.79021E-02   9.15888E-01   2.99062E+00   2.19486E+00   4.04663E+00
 
klon=14732 mozliwe zderzenie: 2080/12/13.407 z prawdop.   3.65E-10
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   3.67466270569168E+00 0.751413976939634  12.0621874188563 266.2478067833086 161.2970050479517 349.8850236655352
! RMS    9.72688E-01   6.50988E-02   8.98903E-01   2.92115E+00   2.24411E+00   4.15346E+00
 
klon=11919 mozliwe zderzenie: 2110/12/11.259 z prawdop.   4.89E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   3.02276563618074E+00 0.698283455666454  11.4051986247905 264.1061139469634 162.5476932802903 346.2875403895734
! RMS    6.16584E-01   6.12548E-02   8.83448E-01   2.83091E+00   2.36006E+00   4.39705E+00
Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE405. Uwzglednilem dodatkowe perturbacje od Ceres, Pallas, Juno i Westy.
Prognozy opieraja sie na nowym modelu bledow obserwacji i na nowym modelu bledow katalogow gwiazd oporowych.
---------------
Obliczylem 3 prognozowane orbity zderzeniowe planetoidy 2011 UZ255
w oparciu o jej 94 optyczne obserwacje z okresu:
2011 10 30.44574 do 2011 11 27.28981
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.4423"
Epoka JD2455800.5 = 2011 Aug. 27
klon= 902  mozliwe zderzenie:  2066/10/25.517  z prawdop.    3.25E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.03225381978309E+00 0.577854138998770   3.4410830296248 213.7665829718672 124.7961442946470 353.2673213757493
! RMS    1.71648E-03   3.94524E-04   1.87342E-03   1.06765E-03   3.78547E-03   6.99154E-03
 
klon= 7818  mozliwe zderzenie:  2066/10/25.372  z prawdop.    2.88E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.03701749331912E+00 0.578946120780346   3.4462651337545 213.7695273986342 124.7857044176524 353.2866784339910
! RMS    1.72749E-03   3.94967E-04   1.87427E-03   1.06884E-03   3.78370E-03   7.00577E-03
 
klon= 13676  mozliwe zderzenie:  2072/10/24.825  z prawdop.    2.00E-05
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.04107634956542E+00 0.579872010121363   3.4506563270380 213.7720239733662 124.7768654449751 353.3031050733763
! RMS    1.73689E-03   3.95341E-04   1.87499E-03   1.06984E-03   3.78221E-03   7.01781E-03
Mozliwe zderzenie w 2072 r. ma wysokie prawdopodobienstwo, ok. 2*10^-5!
Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE405. Uwzglednilem dodatkowe perturbacje od Ceres, Pallas, Juno i Westy.
Prognozy opieraja sie na nowym modelu bledow obserwacji i na nowym modelu bledow katalogow gwiazd oporowych.
---------------
Obliczylem jedna prognozowana orbite zderzeniowa planetoidy 2011 UE305
w oparciu o jej 41 optyczne obserwacje z okresu:
2011 10 30.46441 do 2011 12 06.48559
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.4418"
Epoka JD2455800.5 = 2011 Aug. 27
klon=7368 mozliwe zderzenie: 2109/07/20.191 z prawdop.   5.61E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.41496894069566E+00 0.674117441044344   4.7594867448872 304.4487500466936  52.1557785813264 351.9557597901714
! RMS    1.58234E-03   2.43504E-04   2.00566E-03   3.63491E-03   2.33488E-03   7.63114E-03
 Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE405. Uwzglednilem dodatkowe perturbacje od Ceres, Pallas, Juno i Westy.
----------------
Obliczylem piec prognozowanych orbit zderzeniowych planetoidy 2011 LT17
w oparciu o jej 83 optyczne obserwacje z okresu:
2011 06 09.33984 do 2011 06 16.132524
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.2959"
Epoka JD2455800.5 = 2011 Aug. 27
klon=17012 mozliwe zderzenie: 2072/06/14.375 z prawdop.   8.63E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.09975398578173E+00 0.287603328629177  20.9132793571861  83.5052374481195 270.5410845327866   3.7342889967746
! RMS    1.32834E-04   1.15655E-04   7.59235E-03   2.47259E-04   1.01078E-02   1.04883E-02
 
klon=18818 mozliwe zderzenie: 2073/06/14.617 z prawdop.   1.31E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.09982598630163E+00 0.287666013930839  20.9173943101684  83.5051034241005 270.5356085475831   3.7399717888364
! RMS    1.32948E-04   1.15716E-04   7.59544E-03   2.47370E-04   1.01117E-02   1.04889E-02
 
klon=3777 mozliwe zderzenie: 2095/12/16.089 z prawdop.   1.83E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.09922821693605E+00 0.287144943273099  20.8831746141849  83.5062177830362 270.5811506776689   3.6926526151007
! RMS    1.32004E-04   1.15215E-04   7.56974E-03   2.46444E-04   1.00795E-02   1.04843E-02
 
klon=17760 mozliwe zderzenie: 2096/06/14.388 z prawdop.   9.66E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.09978379911498E+00 0.287629287350583  20.9149834643949  83.5051819460516 270.5388167706707   3.7366426312182
! RMS    1.32882E-04   1.15680E-04   7.59363E-03   2.47305E-04   1.01094E-02   1.04886E-02
 
klon=19043 mozliwe zderzenie: 2102/06/15.889 z prawdop.   4.24E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.09983496078662E+00 0.287673825849668  20.9179070878597  83.5050867225245 270.5349261768806   3.7406797985422
! RMS    1.32962E-04   1.15723E-04   7.59583E-03   2.47384E-04   1.01122E-02   1.04889E-02
 
Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE405. Uwzglednilem dodatkowe perturbacje od Ceres, Pallas, Juno i Westy.
PS. Poprzednie prognozy z lipca tego roku opieraly sie na starym modelu bledow obserwacji 
i nie zawieraly nowego modelu bledow katalogow gwiazd oporowych.
----------------
Obliczylem 12 prognozowanych orbit zderzeniowych planetoidy 2011 PU1
w oparciu o jej 55 optyczne obserwacje z okresu:
2011 08 06.96770 do 2011 09 21.319885
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.5726"
Epoka JD2455800.5 = 2011 Aug. 27
klon=7837 mozliwe zderzenie: 2081/07/24.831 z prawdop.   4.11E-05
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30919779315131E+00 0.248372301995182   4.3102994708894 302.5467782865639 326.5071273260265  41.1687430701276
! RMS    7.96021E-05   4.80899E-05   6.26022E-04   1.22326E-03   1.43331E-03   4.16059E-03
 
klon=7036 mozliwe zderzenie: 2084/07/24.535 z prawdop.   1.28E-04
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30917866523438E+00 0.248360760246741   4.3101496434347 302.5469431056675 326.5069327413859  41.1697427417856
! RMS    7.95982E-05   4.80891E-05   6.26024E-04   1.22324E-03   1.43330E-03   4.16058E-03
 
klon=7368 mozliwe zderzenie: 2085/07/24.508 z prawdop.   6.74E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30918659329541E+00 0.248365544070697   4.3102117442504 302.5468747913704 326.5070133934468  41.1693283963001
! RMS    7.95998E-05   4.80894E-05   6.26023E-04   1.22325E-03   1.43331E-03   4.16059E-03
 
klon=7376 mozliwe zderzenie: 2088/07/24.290 z prawdop.   1.24E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30918678433502E+00 0.248365659343946   4.3102132406548 302.5468731452399 326.5070153368645  41.1693184120657
! RMS    7.95999E-05   4.80894E-05   6.26023E-04   1.22325E-03   1.43331E-03   4.16059E-03
 
klon=7335 mozliwe zderzenie: 2092/07/24.340 z prawdop.   1.45E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30918580525800E+00 0.248365068568741   4.3102055715821 302.5468815816636 326.5070053768406  41.1693695812628
! RMS    7.95997E-05   4.80894E-05   6.26023E-04   1.22324E-03   1.43331E-03   4.16059E-03
 
klon=7392 mozliwe zderzenie: 2094/07/24.778 z prawdop.   2.24E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30918716641452E+00 0.248365889890491   4.3102162334633 302.5468698529740 326.5070192237038  41.1692984435964
! RMS    7.95999E-05   4.80895E-05   6.26023E-04   1.22325E-03   1.43331E-03   4.16059E-03
 
klon=7402 mozliwe zderzenie: 2097/07/24.654 z prawdop.   3.45E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30918740521440E+00 0.248366033982127   4.3102181039687 302.5468677953097 326.5070216529742  41.1692859633032
! RMS    7.96000E-05   4.80895E-05   6.26023E-04   1.22325E-03   1.43331E-03   4.16059E-03
 
klon=7060 mozliwe zderzenie: 2098/07/24.759 z prawdop.   1.39E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30917923834180E+00 0.248361106064302   4.3101541326525 302.5469381672950 326.5069385716681  41.1697127891152
! RMS    7.95983E-05   4.80892E-05   6.26024E-04   1.22324E-03   1.43330E-03   4.16058E-03
 
klon=7412 mozliwe zderzenie: 2100/07/25.354 z prawdop.   4.50E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30918764401443E+00 0.248366178073772   4.3102199744737 302.5468657376400 326.5070240822522  41.1692734830088
! RMS    7.96000E-05   4.80895E-05   6.26023E-04   1.22325E-03   1.43331E-03   4.16059E-03
 
klon=7319 mozliwe zderzenie: 2101/07/25.676 z prawdop.   1.17E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30918542317984E+00 0.248364838022441   4.3102025787728 302.5468848739222 326.5070014900039  41.1693895497286
! RMS    7.95996E-05   4.80894E-05   6.26023E-04   1.22324E-03   1.43331E-03   4.16059E-03
 
klon=6852 mozliwe zderzenie: 2106/07/25.621 z prawdop.   2.03E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30917427143891E+00 0.248358108984132   4.3101152260858 302.5469809664573 326.5068880425011  41.1699723788478
! RMS    7.95973E-05   4.80890E-05   6.26024E-04   1.22323E-03   1.43330E-03   4.16058E-03
 
klon=6974 mozliwe zderzenie: 2106/07/25.572 z prawdop.   4.37E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30917718471079E+00 0.248359866885463   4.3101380462871 302.5469558631223 326.5069176798125  41.1698201195073
! RMS    7.95979E-05   4.80891E-05   6.26024E-04   1.22324E-03   1.43330E-03   4.16058E-03

Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE405. Uwzglednilem dodatkowe perturbacje od Ceres, Pallas, Juno i Westy.
Prognozy opieraja sie na nowym modelu bledow obserwacji i na nowym modelu bledow katalogow gwiazd oporowych.
----------------
Obliczylem dwie prognozowane orbity zderzeniowe planetoidy 2011 SR5
w oparciu o jej 188 optyczne obserwacje z okresu:
2011 09 19.36681 do 2011 09 26.00611
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.405"
Epoka JD2455800.5 = 2011 Aug. 27 (ta epoka dla poprzednich prognoz tez obowiazuje).
klon=1976, mozliwe zderzenie: 2030/09/23.517 z prawdop.   4.91E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.16995577665593E+00 0.702414190699019  28.8455987860224 180.2368235983437 305.5183394173739 296.7954444218196
! RMS    1.75111E-03   7.44963E-04   5.75557E-02   5.41302E-03   9.55203E-03   1.77035E-01
klon=6019, mozliwe zderzenie: 2030/09/23.503 z prawdop.   7.71E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.17352697703404E+00 0.703923673842880  28.9624087548030 180.2258445631232 305.4989001038241 297.1545218239957
! RMS    1.78223E-03   7.48393E-04   5.80060E-02   5.44762E-03   9.70061E-03   1.78220E-01
 Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE405. Nie uwzglednialem perturbacji od dodatkowych masywnych planetoid.
----------------
Obliczylem 5 prognozowanych orbit zderzeniowych planetoidy 2011 AG5
w oparciu o jej 197 optyczne obserwacje z okresu:
2011 01 08.26730 do 2011 09 21.398727
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.4737"
Epoka JD2455800.5 = 2011 Aug. 27
klon=13637, mozliwe zderzenie: 2040/02/05.163 z prawdop.   7.63E-04
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.43049263301502E+00 0.390504643954016   3.6805715829487 135.7121050192506  53.4737761985192  89.6945871372200
! RMS    9.05671E-06   4.95932E-06   4.99725E-05   1.23437E-04   1.80185E-04   8.44860E-04
klon=13649, mozliwe zderzenie: 2041/02/04.324 z prawdop.   2.31E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.43049266561918E+00 0.390504661806723   3.6805717549267 135.7121046973973  53.4737767665313  89.6945840960444
! RMS    9.05671E-06   4.95932E-06   4.99725E-05   1.23437E-04   1.80185E-04   8.44860E-04
klon=13665, mozliwe zderzenie: 2044/02/05.146 z prawdop.   2.96E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.43049270909140E+00 0.390504685610327   3.6805719842307 135.7121042682593  53.4737775238810  89.6945800411441
! RMS    9.05671E-06   4.95932E-06   4.99725E-05   1.23437E-04   1.80185E-04   8.44860E-04
klon=13618, mozliwe zderzenie: 2045/02/04.404 z prawdop.   1.23E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.43049258139177E+00 0.390504615687231   3.6805713106501 135.7121055288521  53.4737752991669  89.6945919524140
! RMS    9.05671E-06   4.95932E-06   4.99725E-05   1.23437E-04   1.80185E-04   8.44860E-04
klon=13389, mozliwe zderzenie: 2047/02/04.922 z prawdop.   1.55E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.43049195919611E+00 0.390504274998063   3.6805680287359 135.7121116708911  53.4737644596004  89.6946499881781
! RMS    9.05670E-06   4.95932E-06   4.99725E-05   1.23437E-04   1.80185E-04   8.44860E-04
Model Ukladu Slonecznego JPL DE405. Uwzglednilem perturbacje od dodatkowych masywnych planetoid: 
Ceres, Pallas, Juno, Westy i Hygiei.
----------------
Obliczylem 11 prognozowanych orbit zderzeniowych planetoidy 2011 PU1
w oparciu o jej 43 optyczne obserwacje z okresu:
2011 08 06.96770 do 2011 09 02.218510 
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.482"
Sigma=3. 
klon=16294 mozliwe zderzenie: 2061/07/24.720 z prawdop.   1.33E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31019653813079E+00 0.248979915515028   4.3182892675630 302.5404732049104 326.5144196165641  41.1165296709491
! RMS    4.84349E-04   2.96191E-04   3.92349E-03   3.29347E-03   3.75809E-03   2.53698E-02
 
klon=16294 mozliwe zderzenie: 2061/07/24.712 z prawdop.   1.33E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31019653813079E+00 0.248979915515028   4.3182892675630 302.5404732049104 326.5144196165641  41.1165296709491
! RMS    4.84349E-04   2.96191E-04   3.92349E-03   3.29347E-03   3.75809E-03   2.53698E-02
 
klon=17587 mozliwe zderzenie: 2061/07/24.596 z prawdop.   1.65E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31038446375469E+00 0.249094798440717   4.3198102415208 302.5396046334241 326.5154345843995  41.1066873750994
! RMS    4.84589E-04   2.96242E-04   3.92352E-03   3.29382E-03   3.75777E-03   2.53710E-02
 
klon=17603 mozliwe zderzenie: 2061/07/24.612 z prawdop.   2.37E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31038678979138E+00 0.249096220161815   4.3198290626290 302.5395938849860 326.5154471420741  41.1065655803873
! RMS    4.84592E-04   2.96242E-04   3.92352E-03   3.29382E-03   3.75777E-03   2.53711E-02
 
klon=17964 mozliwe zderzenie: 2061/07/24.648 z prawdop.   8.07E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31043927479157E+00 0.249128298540531   4.3202537144231 302.5393513703034 326.5157304626005  41.1038175679886
! RMS    4.84660E-04   2.96256E-04   3.92353E-03   3.29392E-03   3.75768E-03   2.53714E-02
 
klon=18279 mozliwe zderzenie: 2062/07/25.020 z prawdop.   3.10E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31048507789423E+00 0.249156290615913   4.3206242563130 302.5391397531224 326.5159776624257  41.1014196877733
! RMS    4.84718E-04   2.96269E-04   3.92354E-03   3.29401E-03   3.75761E-03   2.53717E-02
 
klon=13553 mozliwe zderzenie: 2063/07/25.225 z prawdop.   1.86E-05
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30979846742328E+00 0.248736442730540   4.3150650366507 302.5423142269599 326.5122670271176  41.1373925514106
! RMS    4.83840E-04   2.96084E-04   3.92341E-03   3.29272E-03   3.75876E-03   2.53672E-02
 
klon=17262 mozliwe zderzenie: 2063/07/25.103 z prawdop.   2.84E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31033721922600E+00 0.249065920379670   4.3194279382079 302.5398229587346 326.5151794966949  41.1091613145379
! RMS    4.84529E-04   2.96229E-04   3.92351E-03   3.29373E-03   3.75785E-03   2.53707E-02
 
klon=13118 mozliwe zderzenie: 2066/07/25.049 z prawdop.   4.43E-05
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30973533163700E+00 0.248697811411402   4.3145533531674 302.5426063690606 326.5119252856608  41.1407033188975
! RMS    4.83759E-04   2.96067E-04   3.92340E-03   3.29260E-03   3.75887E-03   2.53668E-02
 
klon=13510 mozliwe zderzenie: 2066/07/24.845 z prawdop.   3.75E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30979222594469E+00 0.248732623903477   4.3150144563718 302.5423431057482 326.5122332472744  41.1377198250877
! RMS    4.83832E-04   2.96082E-04   3.92341E-03   3.29271E-03   3.75877E-03   2.53672E-02
 
klon=13510 mozliwe zderzenie: 2066/07/24.845 z prawdop.   3.75E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.30979222594469E+00 0.248732623903477   4.3150144563718 302.5423431057482 326.5122332472744  41.1377198250877
! RMS    4.83832E-04   2.96082E-04   3.92341E-03   3.29271E-03   3.75877E-03   2.53672E-02
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Obliczylem ponad 50 prognozowanych orbit zderzeniowych planetoidy 2011 OB26
w oparciu o jej 26 optyczne obserwacje z okresu:
2011 07 28.47340 do 2011 08 07.109334
Zajelo mi to ok. 8 godzin pracy mojego domowego komputera.
Prognozy zawieraja wiekszosc mozliwych zderzen z Ziemia wg JPL NASA.
Uwzglednilem dodatkowe perturbacje od Ceres, Pallas, Juno, Westy i Hygiei.
Te moje rozwiazania, oparte sa o nowe oprogramowanie zespolu Milaniego. Musialem dokonac koniecznych 
swoich zmian w ich programach. Mam nadzieje, ze dobrze. Czekaja mnie jeszcze podobne przeksztalcenia 
na moim rezerwowym komputerze.

Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.2922"

Epoka JD2455800.5 = 2011 Aug. 27.

klon=2318 mozliwe zderzenie: 2074/08/10.572 z prawdop.   1.27E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.63883084111534E+00 0.471520195841228   1.7490913762790 138.7097284840982 234.9590969107371 348.7411781115450
! RMS    5.39474E-03   1.95535E-03   5.54481E-03   6.65317E-03   1.37878E-02   8.01579E-02
 
klon=1306 mozliwe zderzenie: 2080/08/09.871 z prawdop.   8.53E-10
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.63665411231674E+00 0.470729949996875   1.7468493013078 138.7070405893715 234.9646604961700 348.7087572612956
! RMS    5.35990E-03   1.94882E-03   5.53059E-03   6.63235E-03   1.37779E-02   8.00371E-02
 
klon=15170 mozliwe zderzenie: 2088/08/09.822 z prawdop.   1.01E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.66775408332955E+00 0.481790771061372   1.7780729967381 138.7446107344596 234.8880855942957 349.1571716045974
! RMS    5.86735E-03   2.04103E-03   5.72961E-03   6.92546E-03   1.39185E-02   8.16968E-02
 
klon=16335 mozliwe zderzenie: 2093/08/10.011 z prawdop.   4.03E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.67049892088705E+00 0.482743807656633   1.7807474881441 138.7478426812613 234.8816151022885 349.1952719331199
! RMS    5.91317E-03   2.04906E-03   5.74678E-03   6.95091E-03   1.39309E-02   8.18369E-02
 
klon=17976 mozliwe zderzenie: 2093/08/10.156 z prawdop.   6.19E-10
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.67440172303086E+00 0.484092610034146   1.7845283374583 138.7524153270557 234.8724911614179 349.2490501219012
! RMS    5.97855E-03   2.06044E-03   5.77105E-03   6.98694E-03   1.39483E-02   8.20339E-02
 
klon=2229 mozliwe zderzenie: 2097/08/10.277 z prawdop.   8.17E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.63863884324621E+00 0.471450591896248   1.7488939669120 138.7094917600109 234.9595863588427 348.7383249108434
! RMS    5.39166E-03   1.95478E-03   5.54356E-03   6.65134E-03   1.37869E-02   8.01473E-02
 
klon=2484 mozliwe zderzenie: 2097/08/10.326 z prawdop.   2.51E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.63918924225458E+00 0.471650073646763   1.7494596970552 138.7101701888382 234.9581839248569 348.7465008208681
! RMS    5.40048E-03   1.95643E-03   5.54714E-03   6.65659E-03   1.37894E-02   8.01777E-02
 
klon=15089 mozliwe zderzenie: 2097/08/10.348 z prawdop.   4.31E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.66756403237501E+00 0.481724647410192   1.7778873421455 138.7443864643944 234.8885352622708 349.1545249938195
! RMS    5.86419E-03   2.04047E-03   5.72842E-03   6.92369E-03   1.39177E-02   8.16870E-02
 
klon=18059 mozliwe zderzenie: 2097/08/10.292 z prawdop.   7.24E-10
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.67460026644338E+00 0.484161029853291   1.7847199928029 138.7526472360967 234.8720293792771 349.2517736039146
! RMS    5.98190E-03   2.06103E-03   5.77230E-03   6.98879E-03   1.39492E-02   8.20441E-02
 
klon=9517 mozliwe zderzenie: 2098/08/10.558 z prawdop.   1.51E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.65473216549913E+00 0.477218899587497   1.7652081634853 138.7290950031409 234.9194026759687 348.9732204683685
! RMS    5.65230E-03   2.00269E-03   5.64730E-03   6.80382E-03   1.38599E-02   8.10185E-02
 
klon=19463 mozliwe zderzenie: 2098/08/10.473 z prawdop.   3.89E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.67797562398097E+00 0.485321313308708   1.7879681823104 138.7565793616273 234.8642135757368 349.2978933415354
! RMS    6.03873E-03   2.07084E-03   5.79318E-03   7.01984E-03   1.39642E-02   8.22127E-02
 
klon=1122 mozliwe zderzenie: 2099/08/10.657 z prawdop.   1.60E-10
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.63625985488536E+00 0.470586552473945   1.7464422688174 138.7065527853936 234.9656716284115 348.7028678088813
! RMS    5.35360E-03   1.94764E-03   5.52801E-03   6.62857E-03   1.37761E-02   8.00151E-02
 
klon=2123 mozliwe zderzenie: 2099/08/10.667 z prawdop.   1.33E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.63841031451526E+00 0.471367719553959   1.7486589083384 138.7092099042077 234.9601692564507 348.7349272109001
! RMS    5.38800E-03   1.95409E-03   5.54207E-03   6.64915E-03   1.37859E-02   8.01346E-02
 
klon=2595 mozliwe zderzenie: 2099/08/10.696 z prawdop.   5.75E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.63942910902648E+00 0.471736959456223   1.7497060704507 138.7104656725154 234.9575733739327 348.7500607165996
! RMS    5.40433E-03   1.95715E-03   5.54871E-03   6.65889E-03   1.37905E-02   8.01910E-02
 
klon=13966 mozliwe zderzenie: 2099/08/10.645 z prawdop.   1.09E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.66493965577918E+00 0.480809751074405   1.7753173610306 138.7412830203329 234.8947667218639 349.1178643437471
! RMS    5.82055E-03   2.03277E-03   5.71193E-03   6.89928E-03   1.39059E-02   8.15520E-02
 
klon=15193 mozliwe zderzenie: 2100/08/10.834 z prawdop.   7.83E-10
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.66780806712635E+00 0.481809550205556   1.7781257205215 138.7446744265198 234.8879579057558 349.1579231690164
! RMS    5.86826E-03   2.04119E-03   5.72995E-03   6.92597E-03   1.39188E-02   8.16996E-02
 
klon=11606 mozliwe zderzenie: 2101/08/11.344 z prawdop.   1.09E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.65948775736359E+00 0.478898296045588   1.7699405483832 138.7347966517247 234.9078451545327 349.0410188259002
! RMS    5.73040E-03   2.01673E-03   5.67752E-03   6.84841E-03   1.38813E-02   8.12687E-02
 
klon=14590 mozliwe zderzenie: 2101/08/11.469 z prawdop.   1.13E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.66639548268852E+00 0.481317690561286   1.7767444688244 138.7430061099873 234.8913048332997 349.1382275194491
! RMS    5.84476E-03   2.03705E-03   5.72111E-03   6.91286E-03   1.39125E-02   8.16273E-02
 
klon=6029 mozliwe zderzenie: 2102/08/11.650 z prawdop.   7.88E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.64693514246506E+00 0.474440783169977   1.7573625173407 138.7196575050223 234.9386608136356 348.8604836765375
! RMS    5.52531E-03   1.97955E-03   5.59733E-03   6.73024E-03   1.38246E-02   8.06010E-02
 
klon=12101 mozliwe zderzenie: 2103/08/11.864 z prawdop.   1.34E-05
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.66062423274608E+00 0.479297962358785   1.7710656215200 138.7361531631991 234.9051039155153 349.0571146920882
! RMS    5.74916E-03   2.02009E-03   5.68474E-03   6.85906E-03   1.38865E-02   8.13285E-02
 
klon=12094 mozliwe zderzenie: 2103/08/11.864 z prawdop.   7.32E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.66060813549529E+00 0.479292305888739   1.7710497014618 138.7361339655343 234.9051426875409 349.0568869918373
! RMS    5.74889E-03   2.02004E-03   5.68464E-03   6.85891E-03   1.38865E-02   8.13276E-02
 
klon=5992 mozliwe zderzenie: 2104/08/11.063 z prawdop.   2.77E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.64685337757966E+00 0.474411486057252   1.7572796654644 138.7195579429263 234.9388648381613 348.8592909093526
! RMS    5.52399E-03   1.97931E-03   5.59680E-03   6.72947E-03   1.38243E-02   8.05966E-02
 
klon=16334 mozliwe zderzenie: 2104/08/10.871 z prawdop.   3.38E-11
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.67049655563704E+00 0.482742987994461   1.7807451890142 138.7478399019731 234.8816206588010 349.1952392010455
! RMS    5.91311E-03   2.04905E-03   5.74675E-03   6.95087E-03   1.39308E-02   8.18366E-02
 
klon=9858 mozliwe zderzenie: 2105/08/11.192 z prawdop.   6.98E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.65550400217553E+00 0.477492236974604   1.7659789353304 138.7300231745290 234.9175172888354 348.9842733127863
! RMS    5.66495E-03   2.00498E-03   5.65223E-03   6.81107E-03   1.38634E-02   8.10594E-02
 
klon=11097 mozliwe zderzenie: 2105/08/11.138 z prawdop.   4.13E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.65832299896970E+00 0.478488016630639   1.7687851394411 138.7334039665849 234.9106628733675 349.0244799819752
! RMS    5.71124E-03   2.01331E-03   5.67016E-03   6.83753E-03   1.38762E-02   8.12080E-02
 
klon=13059 mozliwe zderzenie: 2105/08/11.300 z prawdop.   2.13E-10
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.66283429414960E+00 0.480073344936820   1.7732470883532 138.7387844809502 234.8997957783976 349.0882992853398
! RMS    5.78567E-03   2.02659E-03   5.69868E-03   6.87968E-03   1.38964E-02   8.14432E-02
 
klon=2727 mozliwe zderzenie: 2106/08/11.593 z prawdop.   1.98E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.63971457839157E+00 0.471840324641327   1.7499991453286 138.7108171908473 234.9568472505961 348.7542948712067
! RMS    5.40892E-03   1.95801E-03   5.55058E-03   6.66162E-03   1.37919E-02   8.02069E-02
 
klon=3977 mozliwe zderzenie: 2106/08/11.538 z prawdop.   2.53E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.64242992117516E+00 0.472821403374442   1.7527793482069 138.7141531066613 234.9499676901419 348.7944322659105
! RMS    5.45253E-03   1.96611E-03   5.56819E-03   6.68745E-03   1.38041E-02   8.03556E-02
 
klon=5993 mozliwe zderzenie: 2106/08/11.520 z prawdop.   5.02E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.64685558718224E+00 0.474412277823234   1.7572819046003 138.7195606336411 234.9388593240620 348.8593231454213
! RMS    5.52404E-03   1.97932E-03   5.59682E-03   6.72950E-03   1.38243E-02   8.05968E-02
 
klon=6019 mozliwe zderzenie: 2106/08/11.599 z prawdop.   2.89E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.64691304191477E+00 0.474432864676391   1.7573401241732 138.7196305952178 234.9387159559378 348.8601613005807
! RMS    5.52496E-03   1.97949E-03   5.59719E-03   6.73004E-03   1.38245E-02   8.05999E-02
 
klon=16310 mozliwe zderzenie: 2106/08/11.570 z prawdop.   3.15E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.67043979429867E+00 0.482723316903126   1.7806900115846 138.7477732015909 234.8817540139788 349.1944536445570
! RMS    5.91217E-03   2.04889E-03   5.74640E-03   6.95036E-03   1.39306E-02   8.18338E-02
 
klon=5501 mozliwe zderzenie: 2107/08/11.823 z prawdop.   4.22E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.64577018832974E+00 0.474023046143709   1.7561809364668 138.7182378113235 234.9415717830803 348.8434687597744
! RMS    5.50646E-03   1.97609E-03   5.58982E-03   6.71921E-03   1.38194E-02   8.05380E-02
 
klon=8909 mozliwe zderzenie: 2107/08/11.866 z prawdop.   2.42E-10
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.65336025544461E+00 0.476732313095277   1.7638355475569 138.7274425338239 234.9227631324979 348.9535271700061
! RMS    5.62989E-03   1.99864E-03   5.63858E-03   6.79094E-03   1.38538E-02   8.09460E-02
 
klon=10080 mozliwe zderzenie: 2107/08/12.028 z prawdop.   7.48E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.65600741609835E+00 0.477670354262653   1.7664810888797 138.7306279705532 234.9162895978399 348.9914720004722
! RMS    5.67321E-03   2.00647E-03   5.65544E-03   6.81581E-03   1.38657E-02   8.10861E-02
 
klon=10675 mozliwe zderzenie: 2107/08/11.843 z prawdop.   1.14E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.65736027883702E+00 0.478148393283894   1.7678283562783 138.7322510058947 234.9129981727907 349.0107774358268
! RMS    5.69542E-03   2.01047E-03   5.66404E-03   6.82851E-03   1.38718E-02   8.11574E-02
 
klon=11293 mozliwe zderzenie: 2107/08/11.856 z prawdop.   1.71E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.65877104893308E+00 0.478645919633696   1.7692298733320 138.7339399832987 234.9095779836649 349.0308471032050
! RMS    5.71862E-03   2.01463E-03   5.67300E-03   6.84173E-03   1.38782E-02   8.12316E-02
 
klon=12963 mozliwe zderzenie: 2107/08/11.855 z prawdop.   9.52E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.66261219491063E+00 0.479995532382225   1.7730282449516 138.7385204431324 234.9003278713337 349.0851723295713
! RMS    5.78199E-03   2.02594E-03   5.69728E-03   6.87761E-03   1.38954E-02   8.14317E-02
 
klon=18130 mozliwe zderzenie: 2107/08/11.948 z prawdop.   5.21E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.67477019277293E+00 0.484219572912165   1.7848839714772 138.7528456644298 234.8716343374298 349.2541035932715
! RMS    5.98476E-03   2.06152E-03   5.77336E-03   6.99036E-03   1.39500E-02   8.20527E-02
 
klon=5160 mozliwe zderzenie: 2108/08/11.186 z prawdop.   8.00E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.64501993478298E+00 0.473753646666451   1.7554186749845 138.7173221641209 234.9434511948589 348.8324870418728
! RMS    5.49433E-03   1.97385E-03   5.58497E-03   6.71209E-03   1.38160E-02   8.04972E-02
 
klon=5191 mozliwe zderzenie: 2108/08/11.165 z prawdop.   8.35E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.64508807131314E+00 0.473778124927256   1.7554879441716 138.7174053646601 234.9432803583362 348.8334851501536
! RMS    5.49542E-03   1.97405E-03   5.58540E-03   6.71272E-03   1.38162E-02   8.05008E-02
 
klon=2642 mozliwe zderzenie: 2109/08/11.394 z prawdop.   3.64E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.63953072570622E+00 0.471773758553048   1.7498104116175 138.7105908178558 234.9573148378455 348.7515682369154
! RMS    5.40596E-03   1.95745E-03   5.54937E-03   6.65985E-03   1.37910E-02   8.01966E-02
 
klon=9090 mozliwe zderzenie: 2109/08/11.397 z prawdop.   1.55E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.65376809913061E+00 0.476877065362179   1.7642439490410 138.7279341414501 234.9217628903261 348.9593879607975
! RMS    5.63653E-03   1.99984E-03   5.64116E-03   6.79476E-03   1.38556E-02   8.09674E-02
 
klon=10686 mozliwe zderzenie: 2109/08/11.384 z prawdop.   6.32E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.65738533955394E+00 0.478157239940766   1.7678532830332 138.7322810400508 234.9129373092933 349.0111345028821
! RMS    5.69582E-03   2.01054E-03   5.66420E-03   6.82874E-03   1.38719E-02   8.11587E-02
 
klon=10825 mozliwe zderzenie: 2109/08/11.447 z prawdop.   1.99E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.65770217203362E+00 0.478269057568440   1.7681683269428 138.7326606516640 234.9121681733873 349.0156470318212
! RMS    5.70104E-03   2.01148E-03   5.66622E-03   6.83171E-03   1.38734E-02   8.11754E-02
 
klon=10867 mozliwe zderzenie: 2109/08/11.414 z prawdop.   2.25E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.65779796252787E+00 0.478302854411817   1.7682635420552 138.7327753869135 234.9119357571339 349.0170107116060
! RMS    5.70261E-03   2.01176E-03   5.66683E-03   6.83261E-03   1.38738E-02   8.11805E-02
 
klon=11267 mozliwe zderzenie: 2109/08/11.411 z prawdop.   1.23E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.65871158047498E+00 0.478624967355462   1.7691708651994 138.7338688601126 234.9097219066652 349.0300023790971
! RMS    5.71763E-03   2.01445E-03   5.67261E-03   6.84116E-03   1.38779E-02   8.12283E-02
 
klon=12997 mozliwe zderzenie: 2109/08/11.433 z prawdop.   9.85E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.66269083892641E+00 0.480023088129885   1.7731057458435 138.7386139474363 234.9001394260993 349.0862797425720
! RMS    5.78331E-03   2.02617E-03   5.69779E-03   6.87836E-03   1.38958E-02   8.14360E-02
 
klon=14318 mozliwe zderzenie: 2110/08/11.572 z prawdop.   1.85E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.66576014923686E+00 0.481096149957688   1.7761221154249 138.7422546040021 234.8928140613566 349.1293489631012
! RMS    5.83417E-03   2.03518E-03   5.71709E-03   6.90692E-03   1.39096E-02   8.15943E-02
 
klon=14924 mozliwe zderzenie: 2110/08/11.719 z prawdop.   2.20E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.66717720853565E+00 0.481590006850041   1.7775092761803 138.7439297947168 234.8894511676568 349.1491347246653
! RMS    5.85775E-03   2.03934E-03   5.72599E-03   6.92010E-03   1.39159E-02   8.16672E-02
 
klon=15051 mozliwe zderzenie: 2110/08/11.678 z prawdop.   1.12E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.66747490798836E+00 0.481693632648771   1.7778002582145 138.7442812709613 234.8887462081743 349.1532834824436
! RMS    5.86271E-03   2.04021E-03   5.72787E-03   6.92288E-03   1.39173E-02   8.16826E-02
 
klon=16409 mozliwe zderzenie: 2110/08/11.491 z prawdop.   9.30E-10
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.67067399356278E+00 0.482804470427449   1.7809176404276 138.7480483732093 234.8812039081680 349.1976942438335
! RMS    5.91608E-03   2.04957E-03   5.74786E-03   6.95252E-03   1.39316E-02   8.18457E-02
----------------
Obliczylem 25 prognozowanych orbit zderzeniowych planetoidy 2011 FQ6
w oparciu o jej 24 optyczne obserwacji z okresu:
2011 03 27.26132 do 2011 03 30.36173
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.3734"
Epoka JD2455800.5 = 2011 Aug. 27.
klon=7235 mozliwe zderzenie: 2053/03/23.603 z prawdop.   1.19E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.79978005860142E-01 0.351258775674352   5.1241495429490 183.2248887330522 246.4159361929721 231.4678571662486
! RMS    1.28731E-04   4.10585E-04   7.29030E-03   9.21311E-04   2.43842E-03   8.06494E-02
 
klon=18175 mozliwe zderzenie: 2054/03/23.828 z prawdop.   9.22E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80404555042529E-01 0.352605621131181   5.1480532215030 183.2268847003308 246.4112837320151 231.2016864061237
! RMS    1.31209E-04   4.13616E-04   7.35417E-03   9.21346E-04   2.43847E-03   8.16122E-02
 
klon=18153 mozliwe zderzenie: 2055/03/24.069 z prawdop.   2.13E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80403689075950E-01 0.352602902356077   5.1480049351016 183.2268806904650 246.4112931039180 231.2022248568329
! RMS    1.31205E-04   4.13610E-04   7.35405E-03   9.21346E-04   2.43847E-03   8.16104E-02
 
klon=18129 mozliwe zderzenie: 2056/03/23.347 z prawdop.   4.19E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80402744423044E-01 0.352599936467205   5.1479522600291 183.2268763160475 246.4113033277370 231.2028122428660
! RMS    1.31199E-04   4.13603E-04   7.35392E-03   9.21346E-04   2.43847E-03   8.16083E-02
 
klon=18256 mozliwe zderzenie: 2057/03/23.516 z prawdop.   1.92E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80407743660732E-01 0.352615631526878   5.1482310108298 183.2268994637951 246.4112492258268 231.1997038169798
! RMS    1.31228E-04   4.13638E-04   7.35466E-03   9.21346E-04   2.43847E-03   8.16195E-02
 
klon=18075 mozliwe zderzenie: 2058/03/23.804 z prawdop.   3.41E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80400619098557E-01 0.352593263398504   5.1478337449316 183.2268664735400 246.4113263310549 231.2041338052441
! RMS    1.31187E-04   4.13588E-04   7.35360E-03   9.21346E-04   2.43847E-03   8.16035E-02
 
klon=7183 mozliwe zderzenie: 2059/03/24.008 z prawdop.   2.35E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.79975997739112E-01 0.351252398299445   5.1240364378384 183.2248792362407 246.4159582687799 231.4691147789629
! RMS    1.28720E-04   4.10570E-04   7.29000E-03   9.21311E-04   2.43842E-03   8.06449E-02
 
klon=7267 mozliwe zderzenie: 2059/03/24.068 z prawdop.   7.91E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.79979241717327E-01 0.351262700327396   5.1242191485012 183.2248945771975 246.4159226076785 231.4670832154009
! RMS    1.28739E-04   4.10594E-04   7.29049E-03   9.21311E-04   2.43842E-03   8.06523E-02
 
klon=7170 mozliwe zderzenie: 2060/03/23.373 z prawdop.   4.52E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.79975495737241E-01 0.351250803991655   5.1240081623156 183.2248768620242 246.4159637876760 231.4694291710525
! RMS    1.28717E-04   4.10567E-04   7.28992E-03   9.21311E-04   2.43842E-03   8.06438E-02
 
klon=7141 mozliwe zderzenie: 2062/03/23.814 z prawdop.   4.17E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.79974375927754E-01 0.351247247510505   5.1239450872345 183.2248715656725 246.4159760989762 231.4701304913169
! RMS    1.28710E-04   4.10559E-04   7.28976E-03   9.21311E-04   2.43842E-03   8.06412E-02
 
klon=17913 mozliwe zderzenie: 2063/03/24.051 z prawdop.   3.63E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80394244326074E-01 0.352573245699193   5.1474782313515 183.2268369454486 246.4113953387066 231.2080980254130
! RMS    1.31150E-04   4.13543E-04   7.35264E-03   9.21345E-04   2.43847E-03   8.15891E-02
 
klon=18186 mozliwe zderzenie: 2063/03/24.067 z prawdop.   7.45E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80404988038282E-01 0.352606980534360   5.1480773650324 183.2268867052581 246.4112790460404 231.2014171759237
! RMS    1.31212E-04   4.13619E-04   7.35425E-03   9.21346E-04   2.43847E-03   8.16133E-02
 
klon=7099 mozliwe zderzenie: 2064/03/23.259 z prawdop.   9.88E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.79972754234973E-01 0.351242096871835   5.1238537397866 183.2248638950437 246.4159939289350 231.4711461573410
! RMS    1.28701E-04   4.10548E-04   7.28952E-03   9.21311E-04   2.43842E-03   8.06377E-02
 
klon=17803 mozliwe zderzenie: 2064/03/23.249 z prawdop.   1.22E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80389916803514E-01 0.352559654722412   5.1472368603533 183.2268168950239 246.4114421937836 231.2107893806464
! RMS    1.31124E-04   4.13513E-04   7.35200E-03   9.21345E-04   2.43847E-03   8.15794E-02
 
klon=18250 mozliwe zderzenie: 2064/03/23.261 z prawdop.   1.11E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80407507451393E-01 0.352614889996878   5.1482178408451 183.2268983702123 246.4112517818690 231.1998506814104
! RMS    1.31227E-04   4.13637E-04   7.35463E-03   9.21347E-04   2.43847E-03   8.16191E-02
 
klon=17247 mozliwe zderzenie: 2070/03/23.694 z prawdop.   1.10E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80368055845129E-01 0.352490974456393   5.1460171751962 183.2267155432148 246.4116790004887 231.2243880183369
! RMS    1.30997E-04   4.13357E-04   7.34873E-03   9.21343E-04   2.43847E-03   8.15301E-02
 
klon=17021 mozliwe zderzenie: 2071/03/24.053 z prawdop.   8.08E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80359175975604E-01 0.352463065268659   5.1455215640377 183.2266743433838 246.4117752447817 231.2299131648674
! RMS    1.30946E-04   4.13295E-04   7.34741E-03   9.21342E-04   2.43847E-03   8.15101E-02
 
klon=5934 mozliwe zderzenie: 2074/03/23.659 z prawdop.   9.07E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.79927818801447E-01 0.351099287884823   5.1213211937664 183.2246511024238 246.4164884029625 231.4993003342811
! RMS    1.28440E-04   4.10227E-04   7.28277E-03   9.21308E-04   2.43841E-03   8.05360E-02
 
klon=15141 mozliwe zderzenie: 2075/03/23.981 z prawdop.   3.40E-05
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80285443523094E-01 0.352231070605070   5.1414023631576 183.2263315543535 246.4125755993664 231.2758218395426
! RMS    1.30517E-04   4.12772E-04   7.33638E-03   9.21335E-04   2.43846E-03   8.13438E-02
 
klon=15129 mozliwe zderzenie: 2076/03/23.195 z prawdop.   3.00E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80284973666371E-01 0.352229590763966   5.1413760909149 183.2263293659660 246.4125807065072 231.2761145715837
! RMS    1.30514E-04   4.12768E-04   7.33630E-03   9.21334E-04   2.43846E-03   8.13426E-02
 
klon=18293 mozliwe zderzenie: 2076/03/23.250 z prawdop.   6.87E-10
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80409200339844E-01 0.352620204364540   5.1483122271914 183.2269062075273 246.4112334634524 231.1987981316184
! RMS    1.31237E-04   4.13649E-04   7.35488E-03   9.21347E-04   2.43847E-03   8.16228E-02
 
klon=17909 mozliwe zderzenie: 2083/03/23.855 z prawdop.   3.64E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80394086947102E-01 0.352572751463704   5.1474694538422 183.2268362163497 246.4113970425545 231.2081958985125
! RMS    1.31149E-04   4.13542E-04   7.35262E-03   9.21345E-04   2.43847E-03   8.15887E-02
 
klon=20000 mozliwe zderzenie: 2086/03/23.618 z prawdop.   8.16E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80476506772806E-01 0.352831301176741   5.1520618562162 183.2272172823977 246.4105060685230 231.1569744332095
! RMS    1.31628E-04   4.14125E-04   7.36493E-03   9.21354E-04   2.43848E-03   8.17745E-02
 
klon=17703 mozliwe zderzenie: 2087/03/23.897 z prawdop.   2.55E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.80385983412349E-01 0.352547300192493   5.1470174511902 183.2267986670224 246.4114847879278 231.2132357871845
! RMS    1.31102E-04   4.13485E-04   7.35141E-03   9.21344E-04   2.43847E-03   8.15705E-02
 
klon=7609 mozliwe zderzenie: 2089/03/23.429 z prawdop.   2.53E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   9.79992454243100E-01 0.351304650511116   5.1249631723859 183.2249570343264 246.4157774062067 231.4588099345254
! RMS    1.28816E-04   4.10688E-04   7.29248E-03   9.21312E-04   2.43842E-03   8.06822E-02
----------------
Obliczylem 8 prognozowanych orbit zderzeniowych planetoidy 2005 YU55
w oparciu o jej 776 optycznych obserwacji (bez obserwacji radarowych) z okresu:
2005 12 24.29832 do 2010 04 20.863361
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.4422"
Epoka JD2455600.5=2011/02/08 TDB
klon=3150 mozliwe zderzenie: 2055/11/08.217 z prawdop.   3.03E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.14270558464605E+00 0.429004683286021   0.5135232083776  39.3073735825470 268.7844306347820 187.4813495400390
! RMS    7.29982E-08   3.17095E-07   6.26572E-06   1.65245E-04   1.66496E-04   2.18342E-05
 
klon=3067 mozliwe zderzenie: 2062/11/08.322 z prawdop.   5.01E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.14270558282840E+00 0.429004690914042   0.5135232063724  39.3073739804628 268.7844312517729 187.4813500815281
! RMS    7.29982E-08   3.17095E-07   6.26572E-06   1.65245E-04   1.66496E-04   2.18342E-05
 
klon=3317 mozliwe zderzenie: 2065/11/07.050 z prawdop.   9.10E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.14270558830324E+00 0.429004667939041   0.5135232124125  39.3073727819589 268.7844293934342 187.4813484505588
! RMS    7.29982E-08   3.17095E-07   6.26572E-06   1.65245E-04   1.66496E-04   2.18342E-05
 
klon=5309 mozliwe zderzenie: 2066/11/09.270 z prawdop.   4.99E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.14270563192679E+00 0.429004484874235   0.5135232605400  39.3073632322925 268.7844145861719 187.4813354550090
! RMS    7.29982E-08   3.17095E-07   6.26571E-06   1.65245E-04   1.66496E-04   2.18342E-05
 
klon=43 mozliwe zderzenie: 2067/04/15.044 z prawdop.   1.82E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.14270551660470E+00 0.429004968819603   0.5135231333109  39.3073884775641 268.7844537302208 187.4813698097320
! RMS    7.29983E-08   3.17096E-07   6.26572E-06   1.65246E-04   1.66496E-04   2.18343E-05
 
klon=3057 mozliwe zderzenie: 2067/11/08.466 z prawdop.   4.43E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.14270558260941E+00 0.429004691833067   0.5135232061308  39.3073740284035 268.7844313261082 187.4813501467661
! RMS    7.29982E-08   3.17095E-07   6.26572E-06   1.65245E-04   1.66496E-04   2.18342E-05
 
klon=3143 mozliwe zderzenie: 2068/11/07.597 z prawdop.   3.52E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.14270558449275E+00 0.429004683929540   0.5135232082085  39.3073736161134 268.7844306868312 187.4813495857107
! RMS    7.29982E-08   3.17095E-07   6.26572E-06   1.65245E-04   1.66496E-04   2.18342E-05
 
klon=43 mozliwe zderzenie: 2073/04/14.585 z prawdop.   5.21E-10
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.14270551660470E+00 0.429004968819603   0.5135231333109  39.3073884775641 268.7844537302208 187.4813698097320
! RMS    7.29983E-08   3.17096E-07   6.26572E-06   1.65246E-04   1.66496E-04   2.18343E-05
----------------------
Obliczylem jedna prognozowana orbite zderzeniowa planetoidy 2011 GN44
w oparciu o jej 23 optyczne obserwacje z okresu:
2011 04 03.44279 do 2011 04 12.31121
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.646"
Epoka JD2455600.5=2011/02/08 TDB
klon=17540 mozliwe zderzenie: 2035/10/10.885 z prawdop.   1.42E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.26456841750997E+00 0.601814806931070  55.4900695982790  17.0461377640139 319.0122724379983 282.4354981999271
! RMS    3.21270E-02   3.29489E-03   7.32165E-01   1.26399E-01   5.79893E-01   1.59057E+00
----------------
Korzystajac ze 1490 obserwacji Apophis, w tym 7 radarowych pomiarow,
z okresu 
2004 03 15.10789 do 2011 03 14.12528, uwzgledniajac dodatkowe perturbacje od Ceres, Pallas i Westy,
i uwzglednieniajac wplyw efektow Yarkovskiego/YORPa,
poprzez dodanie wspolczynnika da/dt=+180E-4 AU/Myr
obliczylem nastepujace mozliwe zderzenia Apophis z Ziemia:
data, UTC    odl. od Zemi[R_Z] prawdopodobienstwo zderzenia
2043/04/13.901  2.01 2.08E-07
2064/04/12.824  1.52 1.44E-06
Nie ma zderzenia w 2036 r!
----------------
Obliczylem dwie dokladne prognozowane orbity zderzeniowe 
planetoidy 2011 BM45 na lata 2076 i 2078
w oparciu o jej 39 optyczne obserwacje z okresu:
2011 01 30.40270 do 2011 02 13.27500
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.315"
2076 r.
klon=16093(154, sigma=0.0002), mozliwe zderzenie: 2076/01/19.845 z prawdop.   4.55E-08
Epoka JD2455600.5=2011/02/08 TDB
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.94349516434587E+00 0.808449460278872   5.4101045216362 303.1355205332936  62.1464083452235  29.7149570105347
! RMS    1.40754E-02   2.43627E-03   3.39419E-02   5.96406E-02   1.34719E-01   3.59101E-01
 Close approach to VENUS on 2035/03/21.21076 64407.21076 MJD at 0.02565596 AU.
 Close approach to VENUS on 2048/10/06.31920 69355.31920 MJD at 0.08720852 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2051/06/04.51499 70326.51499 MJD at 0.08236817 AU.
 Close approach to MERCURY on 2065/02/05.77327 75321.77327 MJD at 0.06765368 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2070/05/31.99226 77262.99226 MJD at 0.07539401 AU.
 Close approach to VENUS on 2070/08/11.18514 77334.18514 MJD at 0.00485265 AU.
Epoka JD2479314.5=2076/01/12 TDB
1.938091657395414 .8084796142620396 5.285476487667119 298.4225255162309 67.00934046633658 12.87525391240805
Close approach to EARTH on 2076/01/19.84511 79321.84511 MJD at 0.00009524 AU.
Prognozowana orbita zderzeniowa prowadzi juz do bliskiego spotkania z Ziemia!
2078 r.
klon=12255(59, sigma=0.0002), mozliwe zderzenie: 2078/01/18.906 z prawdop.   2.86E-08
Epoka JD2455600.5=2011/02/08 TDB
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.92749765821451E+00 0.805643696744140   5.3712682734940 303.0670377824679  62.3007619919497  30.1279353283725
! RMS    1.37103E-02   2.43762E-03   3.35480E-02   5.93905E-02   1.33947E-01   3.58142E-01
 Close approach to VENUS on 2016/02/28.58231 57446.58231 MJD at 0.09224876 AU.
 Close approach to MERCURY on 2016/03/27.65954 57474.65954 MJD at 0.09652679 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2019/01/14.32776 58497.32776 MJD at 0.09297261 AU.
 Close approach to VENUS on 2048/06/17.97264 69244.97264 MJD at 0.00824341 AU.
 Close approach to VENUS on 2053/09/09.01883 71154.01883 MJD at 0.09863691 AU.
 Close approach to MERCURY on 2056/06/10.87660 72159.87660 MJD at 0.06665854 AU.
Epoka JD2480044.5=2078/01/11 TDB
1.933324962122623 .8047647050285175 5.200646295866604 298.0533158772756 67.5884485010743 12.96483524524911
 Close approach to EARTH on 2078/01/18.90745 80051.90745 MJD at 0.00005220 AU.
Prognozowana orbita zderzeniowa prowadzi juz do bliskiego spotkania z Ziemia!
----------------
Obliczylem 3 prognozowane orbity zderzeniowe planetoidy 2011 AL52 o rozmiarach okolo 1 km
w oparciu o jej 20 optyczne obserwacje z okresu:
2011 01 14.09610 do 2011 01 16.09899  
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.324"
Epoka JD2455600.5=2011/02/08 TDB
klon=4107 mozliwe zderzenie: 2017/12/28.548 z prawdop.   5.25E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.27199581332674E+00 0.568505972632255  12.8881600870725 276.7354752467548 174.1595205260405 357.3549649908865
! RMS    3.60670E-01   5.25650E-02   4.14080E-01   3.26976E+00   1.95224E+00   8.36726E-01
 
klon=5524 mozliwe zderzenie: 2035/12/28.381 z prawdop.   7.30E-11
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.32563718411234E+00 0.576197025965533  12.9416100602814 276.3075914525522 173.8740466919984 357.4753919110442
! RMS    3.97384E-01   5.60203E-02   4.21293E-01   3.34421E+00   2.07636E+00   8.70663E-01
 
klon=12853 mozliwe zderzenie: 2037/12/25.144 z prawdop.   3.53E-10
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.71945722975360E+00 0.625595977310349  13.2460197909666 273.8321133382598 172.0833101001684 358.1762293693691
! RMS    7.28633E-01   8.16751E-02   4.67442E-01   3.82439E+00   2.85092E+00   1.04485E+00
----------------------------
Obliczylem 7 prognozowanych orbit zderzeniowych planetoidy 2010 XC25
w oparciu o jej 53 optycznE obserwacjE z okresu:
2010 12 08.37716 do 2010 12 27.28327
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.545"
Epoka JD2455600.5=2011/02/08 TDB

klon=10181 mozliwe zderzenie: 2048/01/24.319 z prawdop.   5.93E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.74715363566500E+00 0.529803213861501   2.9816466793987 304.1434684471347 237.0400813851993 353.3535151219494
! RMS    6.45656E-03   1.71477E-03   5.03111E-03   3.11857E-02   7.00921E-02   6.38050E-02
 
klon=8316 mozliwe zderzenie: 2050/01/23.710 z prawdop.   9.23E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.74355237482544E+00 0.528844695971233   2.9788321352445 304.1260516063836 237.0792136200954 353.3177796088768
! RMS    6.41664E-03   1.71147E-03   5.03358E-03   3.11549E-02   7.00697E-02   6.39439E-02
 
klon=1058 mozliwe zderzenie: 2052/01/24.137 z prawdop.   6.45E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.72974729502937E+00 0.525131958857878   2.9678656508004 304.0584342898771 237.2313837087259 353.1779710257556
! RMS    6.26457E-03   1.69870E-03   5.04313E-03   3.10355E-02   6.99814E-02   6.44814E-02
 
klon=2255 mozliwe zderzenie: 2052/01/24.098 z prawdop.   2.82E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.73200133563982E+00 0.525742357201724   2.9696756936481 304.0695679414079 237.2063008612345 353.2011089629949
! RMS    6.28929E-03   1.70080E-03   5.04157E-03   3.10551E-02   6.99960E-02   6.43931E-02
 
klon=4666 mozliwe zderzenie: 2052/01/24.147 z prawdop.   2.40E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.73656850647078E+00 0.526974110886502   2.9733197702255 304.0920148063059 237.1557629870966 353.2476170681746
! RMS    6.33951E-03   1.70503E-03   5.03840E-03   3.10948E-02   7.00254E-02   6.42148E-02
 
klon=4735 mozliwe zderzenie: 2053/01/23.389 z prawdop.   9.52E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.73669974929459E+00 0.527009407327959   2.9734240256105 304.0926576314330 237.1543163393072 353.2489461770343
! RMS    6.34096E-03   1.70515E-03   5.03831E-03   3.10959E-02   7.00263E-02   6.42097E-02
 
klon=12111 mozliwe zderzenie: 2055/01/24.025 z prawdop.   2.54E-05
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   1.75090403719787E+00 0.530797086775229   2.9845578525873 304.1615104509690 236.9995720789404 353.3904142114801
! RMS    6.49826E-03   1.71820E-03   5.02854E-03   3.12176E-02   7.01153E-02   6.36610E-02
----------------------------------

Obliczylem 4 prognozowanE orbitY zderzeniowe planetoidy 2009 FD
w oparciu o jej 179 optycznych obserwacji z okresu:
2009 02 24.36493 do 2010 11 12.80566 
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.4206"

Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB

klon= 4600  mozliwe zderzenie:  2185/03/29.754  z prawdop.    2.30E-03
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. perih.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.16338485225356E+00 0.492865767157364   3.1478704174122   9.5664854764320 281.3146191425414 332.7580862533533
! RMS    3.39958E-07   7.61086E-07   1.43500E-05   2.76545E-05   5.76701E-05   1.20596E-04
 
klon= 4624  mozliwe zderzenie:  2186/03/29.983  z prawdop.    2.92E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. perih.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.16338485551717E+00 0.492865774438748   3.1478704355960   9.5664854698844 281.3146196317573 332.7580850960051
! RMS    3.39958E-07   7.61086E-07   1.43500E-05   2.76545E-05   5.76701E-05   1.20596E-04
 
klon= 5912  mozliwe zderzenie:  2190/03/30.077  z prawdop.    1.33E-04
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. perih.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.16338503066338E+00 0.492866165205995   3.1478714114590   9.5664851185582 281.3146458863037 332.7580229852372
! RMS    3.39957E-07   7.61083E-07   1.43500E-05   2.76545E-05   5.76699E-05   1.20596E-04
 
klon= 4731  mozliwe zderzenie:  2191/03/30.215  z prawdop.    9.55E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. perih.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.16338487006737E+00 0.492865806901590   3.1478705166682   9.5664854406970 281.3146218128443 332.7580799361772
! RMS    3.39958E-07   7.61085E-07   1.43500E-05   2.76545E-05   5.76701E-05   1.20596E-04
----------------
Obliczylem 7. prognozowanych orbit zderzeniowych planetoidy 2010 UT7
w oparciu o jej 24 optyczne obserwacje z okresu:
2010 10 29.47815 do 2010 11 02.52762 
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.298338"
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
klon= 19855  mozliwe zderzenie:  2029/05/26.856  z prawdop.    7.83E-10
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.63691983286110E+00 0.668467736687202  25.4274634028285  66.0532961742655 278.3911674375921 336.9963437585741
! RMS    2.05366E-02   3.42169E-03   1.38540E-01   2.32367E-01   4.79051E-01   3.79989E-01
 
klon= 19021  mozliwe zderzenie:  2031/05/27.205  z prawdop.    2.95E-11
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.63180239537739E+00 0.667655207464518  25.4173754140394  66.0270789013661 278.3037330301435 336.9017017659332
! RMS    2.03706E-02   3.40911E-03   1.38451E-01   2.32185E-01   4.79377E-01   3.79377E-01
 
klon= 19876  mozliwe zderzenie:  2050/05/27.098  z prawdop.    9.73E-11
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.63704922643246E+00 0.668488247021815  25.4277182967724  66.0539578972419 278.3933663470181 336.9987289379215
! RMS    2.05408E-02   3.42201E-03   1.38542E-01   2.32371E-01   4.79043E-01   3.80004E-01
 
klon= 19721  mozliwe zderzenie:  2052/05/26.546  z prawdop.    1.37E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.63609480227947E+00 0.668336920200002  25.4258379558070  66.0490755764304 278.3771332018632 336.9811264806603
! RMS    2.05098E-02   3.41967E-03   1.38526E-01   2.32337E-01   4.79104E-01   3.79891E-01
 
klon= 19813  mozliwe zderzenie:  2052/05/26.561  z prawdop.    4.05E-10
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.63666112520396E+00 0.668426723532475  25.4269537447945  66.0519729608471 278.3867692238427 336.9915737104720
! RMS    2.05282E-02   3.42106E-03   1.38535E-01   2.32358E-01   4.79068E-01   3.79958E-01
 
klon= 19316  mozliwe zderzenie:  2054/05/27.024  z prawdop.    8.44E-10
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.63360777584360E+00 0.667942161697174  25.4209359238299  66.0363384548399 278.3346837489855 336.9351595850459
! RMS    2.04290E-02   3.41355E-03   1.38482E-01   2.32249E-01   4.79262E-01   3.79593E-01
 
klon= 18694  mozliwe zderzenie:  2058/05/26.868  z prawdop.    1.37E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.62980721077662E+00 0.667337702739774  25.4134386147997  66.0168327227791 278.2693947103303 336.8646385020577
! RMS    2.03060E-02   3.40419E-03   1.38416E-01   2.32113E-01   4.79504E-01   3.79137E-01
*************
Obliczylem druga orbite zderzeniowa dla mozliwego zderzenia planetoidy 2009 BD z Ziemia w 2071 r.
Teraz uwzglednilem dodatkowe perturbacje od Ceres, Pallas, Juno, Westy i Hygiei. Bez efektow Yarkovskiego/YORPa.
122 optyczne obserwacje planetoidy 2009 BD z okresu:
2009 01 16.27641 do 2009 11 01.468038
rms orbity nominalnej =  0.5129"
Oto orbita nr 41 prowadzaca do najglebszego zderzenia z Ziemia, rms=.5439":
epoka startowa: JD2455400.5 TDB=2010/07/23 UTC
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.00208628391348E+00 0.046890414532918   0.3756880769626  53.1305014906483 100.2157395046024 144.1886983659784
! RMS    9.84685E-08   1.32330E-07   3.93668E-06   1.20834E-03   8.72635E-04   5.36398E-04
 Close approach to EARTH on 2011/06/02.03910 55714.03910 MJD at 0.00231483 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2046/04/13.17943 68448.17943 MJD at 0.02235833 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2061/06/06.78249 73981.78249 MJD at 0.01188778 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2071/05/12.33090 77608.33090 MJD at 0.00002692 AU.
epoka przed zderzeniem: JD2477600.5 TDB=2071/05/04 UTC
1.085564167188736 6.99434682983546E-002 1.357482526153625 232.5875038011135 350.1112058867778  359.6483478401944
Porownanie momentow mozliwych zderzen planetoidy 2009 BD z Ziemia w 2071 r.
NASA: 2071/05/12.29
NEODyS: 2071/05/12.377 oraz 2071/05/12.315
IW: dodatkowe perturbacje od CPV: 2071/05/12.265
IW: dodatkowe perturbacje od CPJVH: 2071/05/12.269
Uwzglednienie dodatkowych perturbacji od planetoid Juno i Hygiei powoduje wzrost wartosci anomalii 
sredniej o 0.01 stopnia na tydzien przed mozliwym zderzeniem planetoidy 2009 BD z Ziemia w 2071 r.
*************
Obliczylem dwie prognozowane orbity zderzeniowe planetoidy 2010 MY112 
w oparciu o jej 16 optycznych obserwacji,
z okresu:
2010 06 23.74410 do 2010 06 25.13348
Sa to wszystko obserwacje z satelity WISE!
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.5101, a wiec gorsze rms niz zwykle najlepsze obserwatoria.
Prognozowana orbita zderzeniowa na rok 2026:
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
klon= 14647 mozliwe zderzenie:  2026/12/18.731  z prawdop.    1.55E-09
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.21792993481669E+00 0.260101339061018  43.1492824805921  86.4898911441731 306.1807154263538 317.2690795919486
! RMS    4.80458E-01   8.27734E-02   1.09699E+01   8.42286E+00   6.16514E+01   5.49563E+01
 Close approach to EARTH on 2026/12/18.73440 61392.73440 MJD at 0.00045891 AU. 
Epoka JD2461385.5=2026/12/11 TDB
1.217762529066306 .2598267190014567 43.15531700446822 86.44541911047787 306.2028389818473  26.75397997526132
Prognozowana orbita zderzeniowa na rok 2030:
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
klon= 14622 mozliwe zderzenie:  2030/12/18.746  z prawdop.    1.10E-09
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.21670320541245E+00 0.259891150152591  43.1212157039071  86.4683456722008 306.3382658652395 317.1285547230385
! RMS    4.78269E-01   8.18313E-02   1.09627E+01   8.41501E+00   6.15555E+01   5.48840E+01
 Close approach to EARTH on 2030/12/18.74475 62853.74475 MJD at 0.00087367 AU. 
Epoka JD2462846.5=2030/12/11 TDB
1.216417007975313 .2596018793403795 43.13191662039564 86.4072935494612 306.3766034932089  26.6571829960268
 Close approach to EARTH on 2030/12/18.74475 62853.74475 MJD at 0.00087367 AU. 
W obu przypadkach orbity zderzeniowe roznia sie znacznie od orbity nominalnej. 
Przykladowo, polos wielka orbity nominalnej wynosi okolo 1.0638 AU.
*************
Obliczylem prognozowana orbite zderzeniowa planetoidy 2010 NY65 
w oparciu o jej 7 optycznych obserwacji,
z okresu:
2010 07 14.14345 do 2010 07 20.279169
na rok 2018. 
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.21421". Orbity zderzeniowe podobnie.
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
2018 r.
Mozliwe zderzenie: 2018/12/14.008 z prawdopodobienstwem 6.69E-11.
mult_95
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.44948533247644E+00 0.571643653924083  17.2583949933185 262.1055369386348 270.2261980038853  40.5971756361062
! RMS    1.58751E+00   4.41956E-01   8.24463E+00   1.08213E+01   3.42752E+01   8.07536E+01
 Close approach to EARTH on 2011/12/19.47384 55914.47384 MJD at 0.09958617 AU. 
 Close approach to EARTH on 2018/12/14.02344 58466.02344 MJD at 0.00193538 AU. 
Epoka JD2458459.5=2018/12/07 TDB
1.450303779319856 .5712946419568294 17.26096427837188 261.9921611302249 270.3423094083548  327.3688419148305
*************
W oparciu o 290 obserwacji optycznych i 13 radarowych planetoidy (101955) 1999 RQ36 z okresu:
1999 09 11.40624 do 2006 05 26.19953
z uwzglednieniem perturbacji od Ceres, Pallas, Juno, Westy i Hygiei,
korzystajac z modelu DE405 Ukladu Slonecznego 
oraz zakladajac zmiany wiekowe da/dt=-17 10^-4 AU/Myr
obliczyłem 2 prognozowane orbity zderzeniowe na 2182 r. 
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.5203". Prognozowane orbity zderzeniowe podobnie.
2182a
Mozliwe zderzenie: 2182/09/24.929 z prawdopodobienstwem 2.68E-03.
klon_72
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
 KEP   1.12633945017346E+00 0.203729250249821   6.0349841601551   2.0609810860888  66.2099050594028 328.1481672509995
! RMS    4.98584E-10   1.47778E-07   1.89027E-05   2.43812E-05   2.79180E-05   1.58908E-05
 Close approach to EARTH on 2037/02/11.56179 65100.56179 MJD at 0.09871222 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2043/02/09.76137 67289.76137 MJD at 0.09662567 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2054/09/30.04289 71540.04289 MJD at 0.03930519 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2060/09/23.02457 73725.02457 MJD at 0.00501476 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2068/02/15.14748 76426.14748 MJD at 0.07043362 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2080/09/22.35932 81029.35932 MJD at 0.01204609 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2087/09/21.94784 83584.94784 MJD at 0.02420156 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2110/02/19.95111 91770.95111 MJD at 0.06410591 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2123/09/26.15817 96737.15817 MJD at 0.00876012 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2131/02/18.39125 99439.39125 MJD at 0.09733738 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2150/09/25.84579106598.84579 MJD at 0.00900325 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2164/02/14.98292111488.98292 MJD at 0.09927357 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2182/10/03.37987118294.37987 MJD at 0.05401478 AU.!
Epoka JD2518278.5=2182/09/17 TDB
1.120412039967564 .1998992103510719 6.243221568285365 359.5940571437696 68.80068988078047  302.0262153447363
klon_73
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
 KEP   1.12633945017348E+00 0.203729250248790   6.0349841601879   2.0609810858700  66.2099050593976 328.1481672510440
! RMS    4.98583E-10   1.47778E-07   1.89027E-05   2.43812E-05   2.79180E-05   1.58907E-05
 Close approach to EARTH on 2037/02/11.56181 65100.56181 MJD at 0.09871222 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2043/02/09.76137 67289.76137 MJD at 0.09662567 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2054/09/30.04289 71540.04289 MJD at 0.03930519 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2060/09/23.02457 73725.02457 MJD at 0.00501476 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2068/02/15.14748 76426.14748 MJD at 0.07043362 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2080/09/22.35932 81029.35932 MJD at 0.01204609 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2087/09/21.94784 83584.94784 MJD at 0.02420155 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2110/02/19.95110 91770.95110 MJD at 0.06410592 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2123/09/26.15811 96737.15811 MJD at 0.00875960 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2131/02/18.38794 99439.38794 MJD at 0.09731758 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2150/09/25.85658106598.85658 MJD at 0.00909565 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2182/09/29.97460118290.97460 MJD at 0.03784456 AU.!
Epoka JD2518278.5=2182/09/17 TDB
1.120443010516146 .1999663930237335 6.244150348742747 359.5948216308357 68.8086426509994  302.8491526788728
*************
W oparciu o 229 obserwacji optycznych planetoidy (153814) 2001 WN5 z okresu:
1996 02 10.39593 do 2010 07 11.41341
z uwzglednieniem perturbacji od Ceres, Westy, Pallas, Hygiei i Juno,
korzystajac z modelu DE405 Ukladu Slonecznego 
oraz zakladajac zmiany wiekowe da/dt=0.0 10^-4 AU/Myr, tj. bez zmian wiekowych
obliczyłem 5 prognozowanych orbit zderzeniowych. 
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.6256". Prognozowane orbity zderzeniowe podobnie.
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
klon= 17322 mozliwe zderzenie:  2106/06/28.574  z prawdop.    3.50E-11
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.71110763230089E+00 0.466988532188189   1.9217707204942 277.7159937309504  44.3071617170201 342.1861733854315
! RMS    3.40543E-08   1.71121E-07   1.41936E-05   5.90817E-04   5.91508E-04   4.76456E-05
 
klon= 17543 mozliwe zderzenie:  2107/06/28.846  z prawdop.    5.68E-11
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.71110763681648E+00 0.466988516492710   1.9217708018846 277.7159940921056  44.3071638372112 342.1861676982090
! RMS    3.40543E-08   1.71121E-07   1.41936E-05   5.90817E-04   5.91508E-04   4.76456E-05
 
klon= 17332 mozliwe zderzenie:  2108/06/28.064  z prawdop.    1.95E-11
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.71110763250521E+00 0.466988531477985   1.9217707241771 277.7159937472923  44.3071618129587 342.1861731280880
! RMS    3.40543E-08   1.71121E-07   1.41936E-05   5.90817E-04   5.91508E-04   4.76456E-05
 
klon= 17456 mozliwe zderzenie:  2112/06/28.092  z prawdop.    1.33E-11
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.71110763503885E+00 0.466988522671483   1.9217707698440 277.7159939499311  44.3071630025651 342.1861699370730
! RMS    3.40543E-08   1.71121E-07   1.41936E-05   5.90817E-04   5.91508E-04   4.76456E-05
 
klon= 19651 mozliwe zderzenie:  2133/06/28.342  z prawdop.    3.44E-11
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.71110767988828E+00 0.466988366782899   1.9217715782204 277.7159975369015  44.3071840605631 342.1861134510753
! RMS    3.40543E-08   1.71121E-07   1.41936E-05   5.90817E-04   5.91508E-04   4.76457E-05
********************
Oto moja prognozowana orbita zderzeniowa planetoidy 2010 HQ80 na 2043 r. w oparciu o jej 
wszystkie dotychczas opublikowane 17 obserwacje.
Odkryta przez satelite WISE!
rms orbity nominalnej=0.451"
rms prognozowanej orbity zderzeniowej = 0.517"
Obserwacje z okresu
2010 04 25.02829 do 2010 05 05.16437
2043 r.:
mozliwe zderzenie: 2043/04/28.288 z prawdopodobienstwem 4.28E-10
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.61505190802029E+00 0.496184939215391  28.3859306544444 217.4788033862040  65.3202064065918 349.9463687035381
! RMS    4.82830E-02   7.11232E-03   5.34485E-01   1.11069E+00   1.04105E+00   4.12096E-01
 Close approach to MARS on 2039/08/27.42513 66027.42513 MJD at 0.09586406 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2043/04/28.28787 67367.28787 MJD at 0.00167304 AU.
Epoka JD2467360.5=2043/4/21
1.614826433471744 .496978162045445 28.35275981250119 217.1841015811279 65.59156746762098  334.2642360523828
*************
W oparciu o 28 optycznych obserwacji planetoidy 2010 JU39,
z okresu:
2010 05 09.33998 do 2010 05 16.46842
obliczyłem dwie prognozowane orbity zderzeniowe na 2058 r.
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.183".
2058 r. - rozwiazanie I:
mozliwe zderzenie: 2058/06/26.381 z prawdop. 1.03E-05
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   9.21954977420324E-01 0.549845745179197  36.8067466016605  94.4224320153437 311.7679777311936 236.5139141476446
! RMS    1.71857E-03   2.14203E-03   3.40922E-01   4.47894E-01   2.27466E-01   2.71682E-01
 Close approach to EARTH on 2035/06/25.21145 64503.21145 MJD at 0.04423588 AU. 
 Close approach to EARTH on 2058/06/26.38102 72905.38102 MJD at 0.00003305 AU. 
Epoka JD2472898.5=2058/06/19
.9217261147708955 .5493439550087916 36.8497302972865 94.25553159636445 311.8917273476234  281.9069989672334
2058 r. - rozwiazanie II:
mozliwe zderzenie: 2058/06/26.370 z prawdop. 4.51E-06
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   9.22011773630072E-01 0.549908470729917  36.8179818877047  94.4076357746121 311.7754647588350 236.5064536694510
! RMS    1.71945E-03   2.14031E-03   3.40947E-01   4.47859E-01   2.27401E-01   2.71723E-01
 Close approach to EARTH on 2035/06/25.58502 64503.58502 MJD at 0.03195312 AU. 
 Close approach to EARTH on 2058/06/26.37052 72905.37052 MJD at 0.00011139 AU. 
Epoka JD2472898.5=2058/06/19
.9216645896532211 .5494374856473356 36.8627742882917 94.24062283186009 311.9119632530368  281.9100500420423
***********
W oparciu o 185 optycznych obserwacji planetoidy (153814) 2001WN5, z czego wybralem 181 obserwacji,
z okresu:
1996 02 10.39593 do 2010 05 06.33130
obliczyłem 3 orbity zderzeniowe na lata 2099, 2106 i 2107.
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.681". Orbity zderzeniowe podobnie.
2099 r.:
mozliwe zderzenie: 2099/06/27.798 z prawdop. 2.91E-11
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.71110763266441E+00 0.466988498988021   1.9217704559801 277.7162436443265  44.3069119473614 342.1861732637877
! RMS    3.55445E-08   1.85017E-07   1.46848E-05   6.63159E-04   6.63867E-04   4.93423E-05
 Close approach to EARTH on 2019/08/27.30510 58722.30510 MJD at 0.09756484 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2023/10/08.03656 60225.03656 MJD at 0.08901128 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2026/08/27.19839 61279.19839 MJD at 0.03719562 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2028/06/26.22617 61948.22617 MJD at 0.00165844 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2039/10/30.20020 66091.20020 MJD at 0.01301309 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2050/02/03.83836 69840.83836 MJD at 0.08341865 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2076/10/02.54497 79578.54497 MJD at 0.04281721 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2087/06/27.73138 83498.73138 MJD at 0.00076836 AU. 
 Close approach to EARTH on 2099/06/27.79641 87881.79641 MJD at 0.00000908 AU.!!!
Epoka JD2487874.5=2099/06/20
1.793125598817407 .4846700770733742 2.693392753590274 274.884035112811 44.07873203691319 342.5854575628301
2106 r.:
mozliwe zderzenie: 2106/06/28.584 z prawdop. 1.39E-10 
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.71110763071928E+00 0.466988506063450   1.9217704264590 277.7162435758852  44.3069109451707 342.1861757110548
! RMS    3.55445E-08   1.85017E-07   1.46848E-05   6.63159E-04   6.63867E-04   4.93423E-05
 Close approach to EARTH on 2019/08/27.30506 58722.30506 MJD at 0.09756488 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2023/10/08.03655 60225.03655 MJD at 0.08901123 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2026/08/27.19838 61279.19838 MJD at 0.03719549 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2028/06/26.22615 61948.22615 MJD at 0.00165850 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2039/10/30.19579 66091.19579 MJD at 0.01301149 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2050/02/03.81309 69840.81309 MJD at 0.08327106 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2076/10/02.41863 79578.41863 MJD at 0.04263746 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2087/06/27.28321 83498.28321 MJD at 0.00229907 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2091/06/20.49109 84952.49109 MJD at 0.07698879 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2106/06/28.57679 90438.57679 MJD at 0.00000073 AU.!!!
Epoka JD2490431.5=2106/06/21
1.646211794524362 .4506754622568542 2.483355643265103 274.8060546093129 50.17134160136271 338.1843977759228
2107 .:
mozliwe zderzenie: 2107/06/28.842 z prawdop. 2.38E-10
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.71110763530593E+00 0.466988489379405   1.9217704960706 277.7162437372708  44.3069133083687 342.1861699403294
! RMS    3.55445E-08   1.85017E-07   1.46848E-05   6.63159E-04   6.63867E-04   4.93423E-05
 Close approach to EARTH on 2019/08/27.30515 58722.30515 MJD at 0.09756478 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2023/10/08.03657 60225.03657 MJD at 0.08901134 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2026/08/27.19841 61279.19841 MJD at 0.03719580 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2028/06/26.22620 61948.22620 MJD at 0.00165836 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2039/10/30.20619 66091.20619 MJD at 0.01301613 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2050/02/03.87268 69840.87268 MJD at 0.08362084 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2076/10/02.71477 79578.71477 MJD at 0.04309005 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2087/06/28.35388 83499.35388 MJD at 0.00470002 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2107/06/28.84759 90803.84759 MJD at 0.00003049 AU.!!!
Epoka JD2490796.5=2107/06/21
1.703654450725705 .4645192975666788 2.383858932859344 274.8671073060415 47.6738476315687 339.9770844419928
*************
Oto prognozowanA orbita zderzeniowa planetoidy 2010FD w oparciu o jej 
wszystkie dotychczas opublikowane 40 obserwacje. 
rms orbity nominalnej=0.4966"
Obserwacje z okresu
2010 03 16.34477 do 2010 04 15.45123
2085 r.:
mozliwe zderzenie: 2085/03/08.691 z prawdop. 5.57E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
 KEP   2.87573156840863E+00 0.633416634567120   0.3488406466090  22.1279910527919 162.9436055612759  24.2661692494710
! RMS    1.50516E-02   1.86756E-03   7.34799E-04   7.59256E-03   2.07875E-03   1.91132E-01
 Close approach to JUPITER on 2023/01/17.21004 59961.21004 MJD at 0.59924979 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2034/03/17.63162 64038.63162 MJD at 0.02719487 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2075/09/18.09259 79198.09259 MJD at 0.08786773 AU. 
 Close approach to EARTH on 2085/03/09.27404 82658.27404 MJD at 0.02724016 AU. 
Epoka JD2482650.5=2085/03/01
2.794745093389933 .6612963951297836 .2838329051033744 185.3287006742878 1.901404634469555 355.1684035998222
*************
Oto dwie prognozowane orbity zderzeniowe planetoidy (153814)2001WN5 w oparciu o jej 
wszystkie dotychczas opublikowane 162 obserwacje. 
rms orbity nominalnej=0.7063"
Obserwacje z okresu
1996 02 10.39593 do 2010 04 19.273514 
2099 r.:
mozliwe zderzenie: 2099/06/27.796 z prawdop. 5.44E-11
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
 KEP   1.71110762773766E+00 0.466988561550263   1.9217785808971 277.7163473138033  44.3068037202549 342.1861778696837
! RMS  3.62277E-08   1.89647E-07   1.56637E-05   6.68599E-04   6.69464E-04   5.07386E-05
 Close approach to EARTH on 2019/08/27.30501 58722.30501 MJD at 0.09756503 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2023/10/08.03654 60225.03654 MJD at 0.08901148 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2026/08/27.19838 61279.19838 MJD at 0.03719524 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2028/06/26.22612 61948.22612 MJD at 0.00165859 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2039/10/30.20023 66091.20023 MJD at 0.01301259 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2050/02/03.83835 69840.83835 MJD at 0.08341789 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2076/10/02.54497 79578.54497 MJD at 0.04281634 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2087/06/27.73135 83498.73135 MJD at 0.00076841 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2099/06/27.71145 87881.71145 MJD at 0.00055492 AU.
Epoka JD2487874.5=2099/06/10
1.793114499833481 .4846686845654285 2.693448036952315 274.8840480150536 44.07940745925324  342.6016055358252
2107 .:
mozliwe zderzenie: 2107/06/28.843 z prawdop. 4.54E-10
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
Epoka JD2455400.5=2010/07/23 TDB
 KEP   1.71110763031369E+00 0.466988553036399   1.9217786070482 277.7163471879442  44.3068052492902 342.1861745882331
! RMS    3.62277E-08   1.89647E-07   1.56637E-05   6.68599E-04   6.69464E-04   5.07386E-05
 Close approach to EARTH on 2019/08/27.30506 58722.30506 MJD at 0.09756498 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2023/10/08.03656 60225.03656 MJD at 0.08901155 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2026/08/27.19839 61279.19839 MJD at 0.03719541 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2028/06/26.22615 61948.22615 MJD at 0.00165851 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2039/10/30.20622 66091.20622 MJD at 0.01301561 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2050/02/03.87267 69840.87267 MJD at 0.08362008 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2076/10/02.71477 79578.71477 MJD at 0.04308917 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2087/06/28.35387 83499.35387 MJD at 0.00470016 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2107/06/28.84028 90803.84028 MJD at 0.00004672 AU.
Epoka JD2490796.5=2107/06/21
1.70365384720689 .4645193647010167 2.383818768407921 274.8671844155891 47.67384554509023  339.9786768033349
*************
Oto lista 3 orbit zderzeniowych planetoidy 2005 YU55
w oparciu o jej wszystkie dotychczas opublikowane 46 obserwacje.
Wykorzystalem swoje wczesniejsze prognozy.
rms orbity nominalnej=0.778".
Obserwacje z okresu
2005 12 24.29832 do 2010 02 20.54110

mozliwe zderzenie:  2043/11/11.341  z prawdop.    1.76E-06
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
Epoka JD2455200.5=2010/01/04
 KEP   1.14060676484742E+00 0.428932855169209   0.5081017126722  39.4325717072736 268.8880264998090 224.2804213749683
! RMS    2.33656E-06   1.83248E-05   3.27765E-05   6.83655E-03   6.56322E-03   3.68777E-03 
 Close approach to EARTH on 2010/04/19.51091 55305.51091 MJD at 0.01518635 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2011/11/08.97397 55873.97397 MJD at 0.00202472 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2016/11/03.27211 57695.27211 MJD at 0.09546534 AU.
 Close approach to VENUS on 2027/10/27.86193 61705.86193 MJD at 0.00407724 AU.
 Close approach to VENUS on 2029/01/19.37212 62155.37212 MJD at 0.00330240 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2042/04/23.00201 66997.00201 MJD at 0.02546572 AU. 
 Close approach to EARTH on 2043/11/11.34093 67564.34093 MJD at 0.00000182 AU. 
Epoka JD2467557.5=2043/11/04
1.139917904273562 .4239988610918613 .4098054870124378 48.79617681875719 261.8733637195036 42.89887033988042
 
mozliwe zderzenie:  2046/11/09.634  z prawdop.    1.24E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
Epoka JD2455200.5=2010/01/04
 KEP   1.14060080340145E+00 0.428978303875531   0.5081092916892  39.4305970037437 268.8889514387222 224.2870441929294
! RMS    2.33638E-06   1.83234E-05   3.27746E-05   6.83652E-03   6.56321E-03   3.68733E-03
 Close approach to EARTH on 2010/04/19.50286 55305.50286 MJD at 0.01515728 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2011/11/08.96503 55873.96503 MJD at 0.00179779 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2016/11/05.58699 57697.58699 MJD at 0.05286129 AU.
 Close approach to VENUS on 2026/08/05.23425 61257.23425 MJD at 0.00323262 AU.
 Close approach to VENUS on 2027/12/10.34928 61749.34928 MJD at 0.06607638 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2031/11/04.87925 63174.87925 MJD at 0.06695925 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2036/11/11.37502 65008.37502 MJD at 0.08078518 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2040/04/21.29151 66265.29151 MJD at 0.00411934 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2046/11/09.63402 68658.63402 MJD at 0.00000000 AU.!!!!!
Epoka JD2468651.5=2046/11/02
1.156879812409129 .4327114752278831 .4607466538411072 47.36198527366775 262.6413647137019 41.15401632152862

mozliwe zderzenie:  2051/11/09.919  z prawdop.    1.32E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
Epoka JD2455200.5=2010/01/04
 KEP   1.14060080402475E+00 0.428978299123639   0.5081092908970  39.4305972102467 268.8889513419932 224.2870435004560
! RMS    2.33638E-06   1.83234E-05   3.27746E-05   6.83652E-03   6.56321E-03   3.68733E-03
 Close approach to EARTH on 2010/04/19.50286 55305.50286 MJD at 0.01515728 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2011/11/08.96503 55873.96503 MJD at 0.00179782 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2016/11/05.58678 57697.58678 MJD at 0.05286535 AU.
 Close approach to VENUS on 2026/08/05.23330 61257.23330 MJD at 0.00322792 AU.
 Close approach to VENUS on 2027/12/10.33614 61749.33614 MJD at 0.06609318 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2031/11/04.87156 63174.87156 MJD at 0.06711462 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2036/11/11.36516 65008.36516 MJD at 0.08055516 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2040/04/21.28088 66265.28088 MJD at 0.00432250 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2046/11/10.15870 68659.15870 MJD at 0.01163403 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2051/11/09.91928 70484.91928 MJD at 0.00002305 AU.
Epoka JD2470477.5=2051/11/02
1.160216472507074 .433162972301835 .4521630963116889 47.69923288475129 262.6167788303255 40.65579669568307
*************
W oparciu o 38 optycznych obserwacji planetoidy 2010CA, z okresu:
2010 02 05.19638 do 2010 02 11.092792
obliczyłem 2 prognozowane orbity zderzeniowe. 
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.627". Orbity zderzeniowe podobnie.

Epoka JD2455200.5=2010/01/04 TDB.
klon= 7417 mozliwe zderzenie:  2022/08/07.311  z prawdop.    2.42E-05
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.32213707772148E+00 0.462266648011706   9.9716556018087 134.6603626802084  93.0369346861821 298.2577616047966
! RMS    3.27834E-03   1.94663E-03   4.30149E-02   3.83451E-03   1.41803E-03   2.80899E-01
 
klon= 9407 mozliwe zderzenie:  2022/08/07.270  z prawdop.    3.82E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.32609129133570E+00 0.464602696949794  10.0232858664168 134.6557608552724  93.0380957756335 298.5948453707916
! RMS    3.34545E-03   1.96599E-03   4.34593E-02   3.86895E-03   1.36616E-03   2.83740E-01

*************
W oparciu o 123 optyczne obserwacje planetoidy (153814) 2001WN5,
z okresu:
1996 02 10.39593 do 2010 02 11.482770  
obliczyłem 2 orbity zderzeniowe. Nie uwzglednilem perturbacji od masywnych asteroid.
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.661". Orbity zderzeniowe podobnie.
Epoka JD2455200.5=2010/01/04 TDB.
2122 r.
mult_1
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.71118682468662E+00 0.466959375384868   1.9217615793630 277.7264225104169  44.2870276991948 254.1284635211573
! RMS    8.49751E-08   3.64762E-07   2.32374E-05   7.06571E-04   7.08305E-04   1.22302E-04
  orbit            1
 Close approach to EARTH on 2019/08/27.30431 58722.30431 MJD at 0.09756739 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2023/10/08.03641 60225.03641 MJD at 0.08901368 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2026/08/27.19820 61279.19820 MJD at 0.03719002 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2028/06/26.22570 61948.22570 MJD at 0.00165878 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2039/10/30.21915 66091.21915 MJD at 0.01302340 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2050/02/03.94590 69840.94590 MJD at 0.08405827 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2076/10/03.07011 79579.07011 MJD at 0.04377489 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2087/06/29.65417 83500.65417 MJD at 0.01259491 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2098/06/25.76682 87514.76682 MJD at 0.01071754 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2120/09/21.04894 95637.04894 MJD at 0.08916102 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2122/06/28.57894 96282.57894 MJD at 0.00001918 AU.
2133 r.
mult_1
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.71118704840437E+00 0.466959769654116   1.9217602387440 277.7264005252398  44.2871455902515 254.1281484362385
! RMS    8.49752E-08   3.64762E-07   2.32374E-05   7.06571E-04   7.08305E-04   1.22302E-04
  orbit            1
 Close approach to EARTH on 2019/08/27.30491 58722.30491 MJD at 0.09756696 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2023/10/08.03655 60225.03655 MJD at 0.08901489 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2026/08/27.19834 61279.19834 MJD at 0.03719153 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2028/06/26.22601 61948.22601 MJD at 0.00165774 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2039/10/30.30574 66091.30574 MJD at 0.01320555 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2050/02/04.42994 69841.42994 MJD at 0.08718665 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2076/10/05.21538 79581.21538 MJD at 0.05142654 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2087/07/06.63028 83507.63028 MJD at 0.04547311 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2122/09/17.82529 96363.82529 MJD at 0.07606066 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2133/06/28.34034100300.34034 MJD at 0.00001348 AU. 
*************
W oparciu o 123 optyczne obserwacje planetoidy (153814) 2001WN5, z czego wybralem 96 obserwacji,
z okresu:
1996 02 10.39593 do 2010 02 11.482770  
obliczyłem 3 orbity zderzeniowe. Sa to juz orbity zderzeniowe.
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.661". Orbity zderzeniowe podobnie.
Epoka JD2455200.5=2010/01/04 TDB.
2106 r.
mult_1
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.71118699744049E+00 0.466959682754424   1.9217600399744 277.7263991798137  44.2871232273827 254.1282235824306
! RMS    8.49752E-08   3.64762E-07   2.32374E-05   7.06571E-04   7.08305E-04   1.22302E-04
  orbit            1
 Close approach to EARTH on 2019/08/27.30388 58722.30388 MJD at 0.09756767 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2023/10/08.03633 60225.03633 MJD at 0.08901301 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2026/08/27.19814 61279.19814 MJD at 0.03718971 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2028/06/26.22564 61948.22564 MJD at 0.00165900 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2039/10/30.19594 66091.19594 MJD at 0.01300940 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2050/02/03.81312 69840.81312 MJD at 0.08327066 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2076/10/02.41880 79578.41880 MJD at 0.04263441 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2087/06/27.28277 83498.28277 MJD at 0.00229903 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2091/06/20.49085 84952.49085 MJD at 0.07698673 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2106/06/28.57685 90438.57685 MJD at 0.00000147 AU.
2107 r.
mult_1
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.71118700069869E+00 0.466959688496535   1.9217600204500 277.7263988596170  44.2871249443445 254.1282189935630
! RMS    8.49752E-08   3.64762E-07   2.32374E-05   7.06571E-04   7.08305E-04   1.22302E-04
  orbit            1
 Close approach to EARTH on 2019/08/27.30395 58722.30395 MJD at 0.09756761 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2023/10/08.03634 60225.03634 MJD at 0.08901316 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2026/08/27.19816 61279.19816 MJD at 0.03718990 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2028/06/26.22567 61948.22567 MJD at 0.00165888 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2039/10/30.20633 66091.20633 MJD at 0.01301395 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2050/02/03.87270 69840.87270 MJD at 0.08362042 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2076/10/02.71489 79578.71489 MJD at 0.04308675 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2087/06/28.35340 83499.35340 MJD at 0.00469998 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2107/06/28.84578 90803.84578 MJD at 0.00003010 AU.
2133 r.
mult_1
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.71118703172579E+00 0.466959743177347   1.9217598345239 277.7263958104550  44.2871412945625 254.1281752948761
! RMS    8.49752E-08   3.64762E-07   2.32374E-05   7.06571E-04   7.08305E-04   1.22302E-04
  orbit            1
 Close approach to EARTH on 2019/08/27.30463 58722.30463 MJD at 0.09756712 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2023/10/08.03651 60225.03651 MJD at 0.08901454 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2026/08/27.19831 61279.19831 MJD at 0.03719163 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2028/06/26.22603 61948.22603 MJD at 0.00165768 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2039/10/30.30570 66091.30570 MJD at 0.01320572 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2050/02/04.42979 69841.42979 MJD at 0.08718614 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2076/10/05.21529 79581.21529 MJD at 0.05142650 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2087/07/06.63030 83507.63030 MJD at 0.04547319 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2122/09/17.82622 96363.82622 MJD at 0.07605871 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2133/06/28.34068100300.34068 MJD at 0.00001281 AU.

*************
W oparciu o 20 optycznych obserwacji planetoidy 2010CA, z okresu:
2010 02 05.19638 do 2010 02 07.13235
obliczyłem 17 prognozowanych orbit zderzeniowych. 
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.736". Orbity zderzeniowe podobnie.
Epoka JD2455200.5=2010/01/04 TDB.
klon= 6916 mozliwe zderzenie:  2019/08/07.500  z prawdop.    1.66E-05
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.32611138673028E+00 0.464424416025600  10.0060148828158 134.6568398018338  93.0006621187095 298.6039326871307
! RMS    4.77503E-03   2.75028E-03   5.73661E-02   5.22506E-03   2.41030E-02   4.07288E-01
 
klon= 5512 mozliwe zderzenie:  2022/08/07.269  z prawdop.    1.98E-05
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.32212772449101E+00 0.462119794130661   9.9588489612359 134.6611910513792  93.0092393716220 298.2624000366278
! RMS    4.68329E-03   2.72472E-03   5.68238E-02   5.18185E-03   2.41059E-02   4.03646E-01
 
klon= 6903 mozliwe zderzenie:  2022/08/07.214  z prawdop.    2.28E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.32607414487687E+00 0.464402977360039  10.0055760108398 134.6568802617161  93.0007416573070 298.6007562576409
! RMS    4.77417E-03   2.75005E-03   5.73611E-02   5.22466E-03   2.41031E-02   4.07254E-01
 
klon= 4667 mozliwe zderzenie:  2025/08/07.098  z prawdop.    3.96E-06
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31976702441167E+00 0.460743138574319   9.9306863401203 134.6637920585964  93.0143893971534 298.0583187581389
! RMS    4.62929E-03   2.70950E-03   5.65011E-02   5.15611E-03   2.41079E-02   4.01475E-01
 
klon= 5499 mozliwe zderzenie:  2025/08/07.060  z prawdop.    2.82E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.32209119814710E+00 0.462098556006259   9.9584144202039 134.6612311677180  93.0093186709505 298.2592519920326
! RMS    4.68246E-03   2.72448E-03   5.68188E-02   5.18146E-03   2.41060E-02   4.03612E-01
 
klon= 4005 mozliwe zderzenie:  2028/08/06.835  z prawdop.    1.40E-05
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31793656744219E+00 0.459670021691054   9.9087394258601 134.6658205073687  93.0184179204512 297.8992003852163
! RMS    4.58758E-03   2.69766E-03   5.62501E-02   5.13606E-03   2.41096E-02   3.99784E-01
 
klon= 4651 mozliwe zderzenie:  2028/08/06.836  z prawdop.    1.75E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31972258810468E+00 0.460717146434174   9.9301546966691 134.6638411802829  93.0144868265038 298.0544650864561
! RMS    4.62827E-03   2.70921E-03   5.64950E-02   5.15562E-03   2.41080E-02   4.01434E-01
 
klon= 9965 mozliwe zderzenie:  2030/08/07.279  z prawdop.    8.36E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.33503540071795E+00 0.469504785678648  10.1100743042601 134.6472611847217  92.9819420481825 299.3562983185219
! RMS    4.98332E-03   2.80708E-03   5.85714E-02   5.32082E-03   2.40988E-02   4.15357E-01
 
klon= 3516 mozliwe zderzenie:  2031/08/07.636  z prawdop.    4.05E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31659503813026E+00 0.458880367619112   9.8925932180855 134.6673136676956  93.0213902816778 297.7820935920145
! RMS    4.55716E-03   2.68898E-03   5.60662E-02   5.12137E-03   2.41109E-02   3.98544E-01
 
klon= 3988 mozliwe zderzenie:  2031/08/07.631  z prawdop.    1.52E-11
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31788977931552E+00 0.459642526468968   9.9081771765561 134.6658724907343  93.0185213019407 297.8951230810745
! RMS    4.58654E-03   2.69737E-03   5.62439E-02   5.13557E-03   2.41097E-02   3.99742E-01
 
klon= 3147 mozliwe zderzenie:  2034/08/07.347  z prawdop.    2.55E-06
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31558860868721E+00 0.458286187145008   9.8804458325850 134.6684374992114  93.0236313607375 297.6939650385372
! RMS    4.53437E-03   2.68246E-03   5.59279E-02   5.11031E-03   2.41120E-02   3.97611E-01
 
klon= 3498 mozliwe zderzenie:  2034/08/07.353  z prawdop.    3.37E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31654582687036E+00 0.458851349477823   9.8919999344878 134.6673685466933  93.0214996395865 297.7777898499403
! RMS    4.55604E-03   2.68866E-03   5.60594E-02   5.12083E-03   2.41110E-02   3.98499E-01
 
klon= 9020 mozliwe zderzenie:  2036/08/06.801  z prawdop.    4.37E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.33222860915020E+00 0.467918995320973  10.0775805928090 134.6502490823053  92.9877583530671 299.1215321130431
! RMS    4.91739E-03   2.78929E-03   5.81937E-02   5.29085E-03   2.40998E-02   4.12833E-01
 
klon= 9805 mozliwe zderzenie:  2036/08/06.798  z prawdop.    1.41E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.33455754247831E+00 0.469235578106272  10.1045572989962 134.6477682907534  92.9829277508556 299.3164488859210
! RMS    4.97206E-03   2.80406E-03   5.85071E-02   5.31573E-03   2.40989E-02   4.14928E-01
 
klon= 2857 mozliwe zderzenie:  2037/08/07.127  z prawdop.    1.19E-11
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31480117712076E+00 0.457820234439904   9.8709210936985 134.6693189770709  93.0253915318506 297.6248487289557
! RMS    4.51659E-03   2.67735E-03   5.58196E-02   5.10165E-03   2.41129E-02   3.96881E-01
 
klon= 2653 mozliwe zderzenie:  2040/08/06.871  z prawdop.    3.69E-11
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.31424911046388E+00 0.457492996330309   9.8642324937983 134.6699381305617  93.0266291424304 297.5763050463567
! RMS    4.50412E-03   2.67375E-03   5.57434E-02   5.09556E-03   2.41135E-02   3.96367E-01
 
klon= 8940 mozliwe zderzenie:  2056/08/06.832  z prawdop.    1.81E-10
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.33199270693788E+00 0.467785213236194  10.0748398419069 134.6505012325862  92.9882501368435 299.1017232651896
! RMS    4.91188E-03   2.78780E-03   5.81620E-02   5.28834E-03   2.40999E-02   4.12621E-01
 
*************
W oparciu o 221 optyczne obserwacje planetoidy 2009XO, z okresu:
2009 12 09.15200 do 2010 01 16.54518 
obliczyłem dwie prognozowane orbity zderzeniowe na możliwe zderzenia z Ziemią w latach 2038 i 2083.
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.367". Orbity zderzeniowe podobnie.
Epoka JD2455200.5=2010/01/04 TDB.
klon= 1800 mozliwe zderzenie:  2038/01/17.581  z prawdop.    2.15E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.85444973319375E+00 0.543013428181337   0.3573102015994  27.6642076895307 140.6403702491149 342.6298594179601
! RMS    3.59579E-04   9.47880E-05   5.28742E-05   4.25412E-03   4.27335E-03   5.85109E-03
klon= 4718 mozliwe zderzenie:  2083/01/16.351  z prawdop.    1.40E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.85507958871261E+00 0.543179406867642   0.3574026388857  27.6706824852731 140.6338654211165 342.6401029304080
! RMS    3.59928E-04   9.48084E-05   5.28820E-05   4.25411E-03   4.27340E-03   5.85087E-03
*************
W oparciu o 84 optyczne obserwacje planetoidy 2009WM1, z okresu:
2009 11 17.46410 do 2010 01 24.56070
obliczy-em jedna prognozowana orbite zderzeniowa na mozliwe zderzenie z Ziemia w 2091 r. 
Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.475". Orbity zderzeniowe podobnie.
Zderzenie 2091r.
Epoka JD2455200.5=2010/01/04 TDB.
klon= 3102 mozliwe zderzenie:  2091/11/23.350  z prawdop.    9.27E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.18053677025213E+00 0.168964445893495  25.7630306379289 240.3019859720997 162.5731255137278  52.1867730603161
! RMS    3.19863E-05   2.16118E-05   1.45910E-03   6.11873E-04   1.29857E-03   3.07253E-03
*************
Oto prognozowana startowa orbita zderzeniowa planetoidy 2009XO 
w oparciu o jej wszystkie dotychczas opublikowane 137 obserwacje, 
z czego wykorzystałem wszystkie 137. rms orbity nominalnej=0.368".
Obserwacje z okresu:
2009 12 09.15200 do 2010 01 04.362462
Epoka JD2455200.5=2010/01/04
klon= 2386 mozliwe zderzenie:  2038/01/17.580  z prawdop.    1.25E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.85444970689705E+00 0.543015082556342   0.3573047008035  27.6620124287494 140.6430049784817 342.6297905222310
! RMS    1.16621E-03   3.05122E-04   1.74470E-04   1.39859E-02   1.46566E-02   1.90770E-02 
*************
Oto lista 8 prognozowanych startowych orbit zderzeniowych planetoidy 2009WM1 w oparciu o jej wszystkie
dotychczas opublikowane 49 obserwacji, z czego wykorzystałem 46. rms orbity nominalnej=0.522".
Obserwacje z okresu:
2009 11 17.46410 do 2009 11 23.46980
Epoka JD2455200.5=2010/01/04
 klon= 8232 mozliwe zderzenie:  2018/11/22.954  z prawdop.    4.93E-05
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.18471752781501E+00 0.171809809802683  25.9241697850638 240.3691717394340 162.7211666679244  51.7940512590917
! RMS    4.75407E-03   3.22737E-03   1.88208E-01   7.85698E-02   1.57363E-01   4.36343E-01
 
klon= 8252 mozliwe zderzenie:  2022/11/22.948  z prawdop.    1.45E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.18473654477221E+00 0.171822719614753  25.9249220765468 240.3694857617392 162.7217952578469  51.7923060956506
! RMS    4.75442E-03   3.22751E-03   1.88206E-01   7.85698E-02   1.57352E-01   4.36339E-01
 
klon= 8211 mozliwe zderzenie:  2023/11/23.197  z prawdop.    1.36E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.18469756151706E+00 0.171796255076936  25.9233798710682 240.3688420161399 162.7205066018046  51.7958836975739
! RMS    4.75370E-03   3.22723E-03   1.88210E-01   7.85697E-02   1.57374E-01   4.36347E-01
 
klon= 7299 mozliwe zderzenie:  2027/11/23.215  z prawdop.    6.21E-05
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.18383194407679E+00 0.171208164650086  25.8890673002311 240.3545227747095 162.6917947458791  51.8754803521034
! RMS    4.73773E-03   3.22110E-03   1.88293E-01   7.85679E-02   1.57869E-01   4.36524E-01
 
klon= 7937 mozliwe zderzenie:  2027/11/23.221  z prawdop.    3.36E-06
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.18443719055360E+00 0.171619452511842  25.9130726390634 240.3645399282746 162.7118899330707  51.8197942182644
! RMS    4.74890E-03   3.22539E-03   1.88235E-01   7.85692E-02   1.57523E-01   4.36400E-01
 
klon= 1502 mozliwe zderzenie:  2032/11/22.403  z prawdop.    3.09E-05
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.17839731804697E+00 0.167496178887496  25.6706122277649 240.2635126225873 162.5071608608518  52.3821946267974
! RMS    4.63752E-03   3.18216E-03   1.88817E-01   7.85558E-02   1.61070E-01   4.37686E-01
 
klon= 7292 mozliwe zderzenie:  2033/11/22.716  z prawdop.    9.44E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.18382531133687E+00 0.171203655121473  25.8888038777364 240.3544128695352 162.6915740205167  51.8760914162832
! RMS    4.73761E-03   3.22105E-03   1.88293E-01   7.85679E-02   1.57873E-01   4.36525E-01
 
klon= 8226 mozliwe zderzenie:  2033/11/22.735  z prawdop.    1.45E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.18471182299990E+00 0.171805936962906  25.9239440961404 240.3690775327486 162.7209780824492  51.7945748112760
! RMS    4.75396E-03   3.22733E-03   1.88209E-01   7.85698E-02   1.57366E-01   4.36344E-01

*************
Poniżej moje startowe orbity zderzeniowe planetoidy 2009VA w oparciu o 0.12 dniowy łuk 
obserwacyjny z 10 obserwacjami optycznymi, z okresu:
2009 11 06.25793 do 2009 11 06.38259 na cztery epoki:
epoka I, jak NASA, czyli 2009/11/06 (MJD55141)
epoka II, jak w orbicie CBK, 2009/11/25 (MJD55160)
epoka III: 2010/01/04 (MJD55200)
epoka IV: 2025/10/31, jak w orbicie CBK (MJD60979)
epoka V: 2026/10/31, jak w orbicie CBK (MJD61344)
rms orbity nominalnej=rms=0.2994"
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
klon= 11203 mozliwe zderzenie:  2025/11/06.843  z prawdop.    2.61E-05, rms=0.3263"
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
epoka I
1.43233229473956E+00 0.359512297437588   7.5915606039145 224.5317827719917 223.9803739833325 339.0746402941962
! RMS    8.79327E-03   4.32747E-03   1.01700E-01   2.45028E-02   3.19998E-02   2.57146E-01
epoka II
1.148729052447858 .2093316627408667 12.37743509962309 224.4435783714882 238.805862604266 334.5755702543152
epoka II GS
1.148735748      0.208038192        12.2443054        224.4527155       238.3832527      334.7837147
epoka III
1.14859054239774 .2092331197819275 12.37466251693186 224.434422513137 238.8154585275699 6.596845016921407
epoka IV
1.148748128990016 .2094296607681513 12.38764804051065 224.3392274967268 238.9188974820646 314.4809888319624
epoka IV GS
1.148749789      0.208136021        12.2546978        224.3473761       238.4963844       314.6905536
Zbliżenia:
  orbit            1
 Close approach to EARTH on 2009/11/06.88907 55141.88907 MJD at 0.00013373 AU.
  orbit            1
 Close approach to EARTH on 2025/11/06.84471 60985.84471 MJD at 0.00002031 AU.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
klon= 17169 mozliwe zderzenie:  2026/11/07.051  z prawdop.    5.33E-07, rms=0.2994"
mult_51
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
epoka I:
 1.45283756191840E+00 0.369445631790450   7.8199140171110 224.4882899825529 223.9338226339149 339.6559338080747
! RMS    8.43509E-03   4.01882E-03   9.26703E-02   2.11860E-02   2.95570E-02   2.33746E-01
epoka II:
1.138323423599893 .2078437938131263 12.82025199373387 224.4067130452641 241.5343143518989 332.5845491867567
epoka II GS:
1.138352782       0.202167646       12.3193723        224.4427699       239.7673279       333.4420457
epoka III:
1.138198438725565 .2077536503106172 12.81761725889794 224.3983080236827 241.5437625497509 5.04511713182302
epoka V:
1.138435932191625 .2079741572396966 12.83085852977146 224.2954017908934 241.6250563533864 312.0305155833491
epoka V GS:
1.138437607      0.202303844        12.3304645        224.3277512       239.8559725       312.8952505
Zbliżenia:
  orbit           51
 Close approach to EARTH on 2009/11/06.85361 55141.85361 MJD at 0.00012145 AU.
  orbit           51
 Close approach to EARTH on 2026/11/07.05681 61351.05681 MJD at 0.00001983 AU.
*************
W oparciu o 12 astrometrycznych obserwacji planetoidy 2009SH1 z okresu:
2009 09 18.21141 do 2009 09 18.39052 
obliczyłem do roku 2062 dwie prognozowane startowe orbity zderzeniowe  z rms=1.45" na możliwe zderzenie w 2050 i 2059 r.
klon= 569 mozliwe zderzenie:  2050/09/14.809  z prawdop.    1.65E-08
! Equinoctial elements: a  e*sin(LP)  e*cos(LP)  tan(i/2)*sin(LN)  tan(i/2)*cos(LN)  mean long.
 EQU   1.06524418974844E+00  -0.129539379899004   0.022694781856363   -0.000784574367038    0.011506342825332 258.3493267187773
! RMS    2.20824E-02   1.84681E-02   1.30216E-02   3.33507E-04   3.29946E-03   9.89170E-01
klon= 366 mozliwe zderzenie:  2059/09/15.488  z prawdop.    2.21E-09
! Equinoctial elements: a  e*sin(LP)  e*cos(LP)  tan(i/2)*sin(LN)  tan(i/2)*cos(LN)  mean long.
 EQU   1.06166881810356E+00  -0.126629187813168   0.020583038045110   -0.000730530297236    0.010972206192474 258.2093014414805
! RMS    2.19622E-02   1.81850E-02   1.32287E-02   3.32134E-04   3.27950E-03   1.02401E+00
Duże błędy obliczenia orbity wynikają z zaledwie 0.18-dniowego łuku obserwacyjnego. Orbita nominalna ma rms=0.9896". Żadnej obserwacji nie wyrzucałem.
*************
W oparciu o 15 astrometrycznych obserwacji planetoidy 2009SD15
z okresu:
2009 09 19.24181 do 2009 09 25.33279 
obliczyłem do roku 2085 jedną prognozowaną startową orbitę zderzeniową  z rms=0.3945" na możliwe zderzenie w 2081 roku.
klon= 8947 mozliwe zderzenie:  2081/09/14.947  z prawdop.    5.18E-07
Epoka JD2455000.5=2009/06/18 TDB 
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.41578485919783E+00 0.638270024335077   2.9343043673222 357.0802021982668 303.3104082502766 346.3085311158057
! RMS    3.77910E-02   5.98149E-03   2.07517E-02   1.47408E-03   1.31843E-02   2.99259E-01
*************
W oparciu o 25 astrometrycznych obserwacji planetoidy 2009RN
z okresu:
2009 09 11.00009 do 2009 09 11.43807
obliczyłem do roku 2033 dwie prognozowane startowe orbity zderzeniowe  z rms=0.3520" na możliwe zderzenie w 2015 oraz 2026 roku.
Poprzednio obliczyłem zderzenia z uwzględnieniem perturbacji
od Ceres, Pallas i Westy. Teraz ich nie uwzględniałem.

klon= 17142 możliwe zderzenie:  2015/11/30.093  z prawdop.    1.10E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   3.31652577983645E+00 0.704809265331136   3.4428646177436  67.2513348987908 349.3607836752998 336.5113806533827
! RMS    6.80763E-01   9.70374E-02   4.01011E-01   2.77761E+01   3.94150E+01   6.74380E+00
 
klon= 11560 możliwe zderzenie:  2026/12/25.478  z prawdop.    8.53E-11
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   3.17978970967719E+00 0.683702635485968   3.3732879107707  73.2097869792661 340.8280913564122 335.1227729276306
! RMS    5.43891E-01   9.22739E-02   2.26401E-01   2.85161E+01   4.10641E+01   5.65414E+00

*************
W oparciu o 36 astrometrycznych obserwacji planetoidy 2009RN
z okresu:
2009 09 11.00009 do 2009 09 13.06858
obliczyłem do roku 2107 jedną prognozowaną startową orbitę zderzeniową  z rms=0.326" na możliwe zderzenie w 2107 roku.
Nie uwzględniałem perturbacji od dodatkowych masywnych asteroid.
klon= 8015 możliwe zderzenie:  2107/11/24.088  z prawdop.    6.60E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   3.13235496887524E+00 0.648315059732022   3.5195928616014  94.4114445745772 309.2506408475698 335.5280366416534
! RMS    1.47940E-01   1.57760E-02   6.30128E-02   1.02782E+00   1.46928E+00   1.74900E+00
********************************
B.
W oparciu o 56 astrometrycznych obserwacji planetoidy 2009OW6
z okresu:
2009 07 27.36058 do 2009 08 09.534873
obliczyłem jedną orbitę zderzeniową z rms=0.500", rms_nominalna=0.499" do roku 2100
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
ORBITA STARTOWA
Epoka JD2455000.5=2009/06/18 TDB
1.961741106131649 .4841368484947453 .1206009191727704 95.39403977579931 230.0253724179111  339.4762480637485
ORBITA TUZ PRZED ZDERZENIEM
Epoka JD2487924.5=2099/08/09 TDB
1.953045100972778 .4818008282646044 .7970206072033161 322.205835315698 4.011621474359147  356.1898082034867
Ten klon ociera się o Ziemię w odległości 0.00004259 AU od srodka Ziemi i ma zblizenia:
 Close approach to EARTH on 2009/07/28.68427 55040.68427 MJD at 0.01845704 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2050/08/10.97738 70028.97738 MJD at 0.00134792 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2080/04/10.88031 80864.88031 MJD at 0.06545715 AU. 
A. 
W oparciu o 56 astrometrycznych obserwacji planetoidy 2009OW6
z okresu:
2009 07 27.36058 do 2009 08 09.534873
obliczyłem jedną prognozowaną startową orbitę zderzeniową  z rms=0.499" do roku 2100
Epoka JD2455000.5=2009/06/18 TDB
klon= 11331 mozliwe zderzenie:  2099/08/16.324  z prawdop.    1.48E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.96174107947444E+00 0.484136841486835   0.1206009178908  95.3940398458095 230.0253723400563 339.4762476323905
! RMS    2.25907E-03   5.93885E-04   1.09880E-04   7.59898E-03   8.13497E-03   3.65556E-02
*************
Lista 11 prognozowanych startowych orbit zderzeniowych planetoidy 
2009FJ do 2110 r. wraz z bledami ich obliczenia.
Observations from 2009-03-17.24376 to 2009 04 17.27361
Observations: number (discarded) 131 (7) 
rms of nominal orbit = 0.5784"

Epoch JD2455000.5=2009-June-18.0 TDB

klon= 5998 mozliwe zderzenie:  2058/03/13.790  z prawdop.    2.24E-05
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.20061941748879E+00 0.567404579733578   0.8915838804048 353.6452949494245 150.6150154102634  35.5738811484116
! RMS    1.56409E-03   3.14254E-04   3.67530E-04   4.10394E-04   1.32439E-04   3.86774E-02
 
klon= 17739 mozliwe zderzenie:  2065/03/14.064  z prawdop.    2.51E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.20800417996869E+00 0.568883199701767   0.8933104087897 353.6433924443813 150.6146636806749  35.3920474789799
! RMS    1.58081E-03   3.15435E-04   3.68385E-04   4.11748E-04   1.33813E-04   3.87568E-02
 
klon= 6268 mozliwe zderzenie:  2074/03/11.934  z prawdop.    2.65E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.20078836132045E+00 0.567438520562485   0.8916235395282 353.6452512705828 150.6150074442323  35.5697037953418
! RMS    1.56454E-03   3.14295E-04   3.67566E-04   4.10443E-04   1.32472E-04   3.86809E-02
 
klon= 400 mozliwe zderzenie:  2084/03/10.036  z prawdop.    8.89E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.19712589369082E+00 0.566701528798509   0.8907620874988 353.6461997977423 150.6151792753835  35.6604475634300
! RMS    1.55630E-03   3.13711E-04   3.67146E-04   4.09774E-04   1.31797E-04   3.86418E-02
 
klon= 1248 mozliwe zderzenie:  2084/03/10.115  z prawdop.    1.60E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.19765396926220E+00 0.566807948171717   0.8908865165305 353.6460628224330 150.6151546117525  35.6473396933793
! RMS    1.55746E-03   3.13791E-04   3.67201E-04   4.09865E-04   1.31894E-04   3.86469E-02
 
klon= 6114 mozliwe zderzenie:  2084/03/09.941  z prawdop.    1.01E-06
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.20069199537681E+00 0.567419161292719   0.8916009188005 353.6452761842031 150.6150119885427  35.5720864662938
! RMS    1.56428E-03   3.14271E-04   3.67546E-04   4.10415E-04   1.32453E-04   3.86790E-02
 
klon= 7104 mozliwe zderzenie:  2094/03/13.907  z prawdop.    6.50E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.20131172295788E+00 0.567543629992345   0.8917463493558 353.6451160064272 150.6149827424884  35.5567682214081
! RMS    1.56567E-03   3.14368E-04   3.67615E-04   4.10526E-04   1.32568E-04   3.86853E-02
 
klon= 17850 mozliwe zderzenie:  2100/03/14.130  z prawdop.    1.08E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.20807437093851E+00 0.568897205014751   0.8933267504588 353.6433744274944 150.6146603033521  35.3903266525826
! RMS    1.58100E-03   3.15452E-04   3.68399E-04   4.11767E-04   1.33826E-04   3.87582E-02
 
klon= 3531 mozliwe zderzenie:  2104/03/13.862  z prawdop.    6.11E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.19907767198595E+00 0.567094595453418   0.8912216101900 353.6456938890470 150.6150879295888  35.6120407869000
! RMS    1.56061E-03   3.14006E-04   3.67351E-04   4.10110E-04   1.32154E-04   3.86607E-02
 
klon= 18352 mozliwe zderzenie:  2104/03/14.423  z prawdop.    4.59E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.20839189778416E+00 0.568960550215195   0.8934006600955 353.6432929389856 150.6146450172344  35.3825438040050
! RMS    1.58167E-03   3.15493E-04   3.68424E-04   4.11813E-04   1.33884E-04   3.87604E-02
 
klon= 1958 mozliwe zderzenie:  2107/03/12.382  z prawdop.    1.78E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.19809641830763E+00 0.566897071392087   0.8909907124665 353.6459481122980 150.6151339181101  35.6363634544694
! RMS    1.55834E-03   3.13837E-04   3.67223E-04   4.09915E-04   1.31972E-04   3.86486E-02
*************
Planetoida 2009KK8 nie jest juz grozna dla Ziemi - 2009/06/20
*************
W oparciu o 33 astrometryczne obserwacje planetoidy 2009KK8
z okresu:
2009 05 28.43417 do 2009 06 13.40600 
obliczyłem jedna prognozowana startowa orbite zderzeniowa  z rms=0.508" do roku 2050.
Epoka JD2455000.5=2009/06/18 TDB
klon= 17306 mozliwe zderzenie:  2042/07/23.585  z prawdop.    6.56E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.56431838371260E+00 0.621451135615028   2.3060652873925 121.1786812091125 192.8508733565626 356.2435589805118
! RMS    4.57298E-02   6.48120E-03   9.43754E-03   1.52550E-01   1.57229E-01   1.32878E-01
*************
W oparciu o 105 astrometrycznych obserwacji planetoidy 2009KK
z okresu:
2009 05 17.25987 do 2009 06 09.35702 
obliczyłem ponownie jedna prognozowana startowa orbite zderzeniowa  z rms=0.433" do roku 2038.
Epoka JD2455000.5=2009/06/18 TDB
klon= 18997 mozliwe zderzenie:  2022/05/29.762  z prawdop.    8.56E-06
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.50822195260022E+00 0.457892387339997  18.3141208852992  68.1808085745215 247.2380308333651 337.9468334119671
! RMS    1.36566E-03   5.93355E-04   2.03842E-02   1.36698E-02   1.37950E-03   3.86961E-02
Prawdopodobienstwo znacznie spadlo. Ale jest to inne obserwatorium.
*************
W oparciu o 98 astrometrycznych obserwacji planetoidy 2009KK
z okresu:
2009 05 17.25987 do 2009 06 06.102043 
obliczyłem ponownie jedna prognozowana startowa orbite zderzeniowa  z rms=0.447" do roku 2038.
Epoka JD2455000.5=2009/06/18 TDB
klon= 13615 mozliwe zderzenie:  2022/05/29.761  z prawdop.    1.11E-04
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.50822161177243E+00 0.457901561831976  18.3149701711812  68.1802086261518 247.2404720917815 337.9461895093645
! RMS    2.20307E-03   9.62360E-04   3.33435E-02   2.23746E-02   2.30706E-03   6.20803E-02
*************
W oparciu o 95 astrometrycznych obserwacji planetoidy 2009KK
z okresu:
2009 05 17.25987 do 2009 06 05.10357 
obliczyłem ponownie jedna prognozowana startowa orbite zderzeniowa  z rms=0.447" do roku 2038.
Epoka JD2455000.5=2009/06/18 TDB
klon= 13261 mozliwe zderzenie:  2022/05/29.761  z prawdop.    1.16E-04
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.50822172877117E+00 0.457904023168774  18.3151639551619  68.1800789098008 247.2410722270325 337.9460362507024
! RMS    2.34108E-03   1.02451E-03   3.55780E-02   2.38731E-02   2.89250E-03   6.58515E-02
Coraz bardziej orbita jest na kursie zderzeniowym z Ziemia. 
Obserwacje beda jeszcze naplywac przez okolo miesiac.
H55 - Obserwatorium Charleston z 61 cm teleskopem bardzo duzo robi obserwacji NEOs.
*************
W oparciu o 31 astrometryczne obserwacje planetoidy 2009KK8
z okresu:
2009 05 28.43417 do 2009 06 05.37484 
obliczyłem jedna prognozowana startowa orbite zderzeniowa  z rms=0.503" do roku 2044.
Epoka JD2455000.5=2009/06/18 TDB
klon= 16135 mozliwe zderzenie:  2042/07/23.552  z prawdop.    5.82E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.56431044142687E+00 0.621406665553379   2.3042253002469 121.1715783128695 192.8036278161886 356.2511110216103
! RMS    3.77739E-01   5.34336E-02   7.36867E-02   1.23555E+00   1.41129E+00   1.11508E+00
*************
2009KK8
W oparciu o 27 astrometrycznych obserwacji planetoidy 2009KK8
z okresu:
2009 05 28.43417 do 2009 05 30.45911 
obliczyłem 5. prognozowanych startowych orbit zderzeniowych  z rms=0.532" do roku 2080.
Epoka JD2455000.5=2009/06/18 TDB
klon= 15953 mozliwe zderzenie:  2017/05/31.351  z prawdop.    1.93E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   4.02916715911847E+00 0.755179261594816   2.4640626421977 123.9930427827685 189.5461766337594 358.4255255748656
! RMS    5.27564E+00   3.11504E-01   3.24167E-01   6.12782E+00   6.82722E+00   3.76275E+00
klon= 12968 mozliwe zderzenie:  2040/07/22.988  z prawdop.    3.10E-11
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.96668917247268E+00 0.670839135625472   2.3695655818170 122.2543867041402 191.5407471331364 357.1943242579886
! RMS    2.39730E+00   2.55837E-01   3.08803E-01   5.53115E+00   6.54854E+00   4.44062E+00
klon= 18650 mozliwe zderzenie:  2042/07/28.886  z prawdop.    1.93E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   6.55224483230420E+00 0.847805966489987   2.5534953555916 125.7304230203876 187.6661037805184 359.3289104984670
! RMS    1.65802E+01   3.78433E-01   3.39140E-01   6.77305E+00   7.13453E+00   2.87775E+00
klon= 10270 mozliwe zderzenie:  2052/07/22.586  z prawdop.    1.12E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.46781896533410E+00 0.607325209458137   2.2881575597277 120.8273433286713 193.2741626330990 355.9356323050925
! RMS    1.42547E+00   2.16519E-01   2.94900E-01   5.05849E+00   6.31805E+00   4.86676E+00
klon= 16502 mozliwe zderzenie:  2073/07/27.055  z prawdop.    2.57E-08
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   4.34732651789162E+00 0.772626911858395   2.4819550214304 124.3331004726537 189.1697813563261 358.6281017313448
! RMS    6.35923E+00   3.23888E-01   3.27370E-01   6.25479E+00   6.89012E+00   3.61133E+00
*************
2009KN4
W oparciu o 23 astrometryczne obserwacje planetoidy 2009KN4
z okresu:
2009 05 23.78358 do 2009 05 29.74028 
obliczyłem jedna prognozowana startowa orbite zderzeniowa  z rms=0.323" do roku 2090.
Epoka JD2455000.5=2009/06/18 TDB
klon= 14090 mozliwe zderzenie:  2083/08/01.095  z prawdop.    1.32E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   2.06077085753639E+00 0.549743941263845   9.2890518204226 309.3265093682588  36.0638265617158 340.4865029169403
! RMS    8.45130E-02   1.62912E-02   7.75210E-02   5.81327E-01   1.25558E+00   1.43276E+00
*************
2009KK
W oparciu o 92 astrometryczne obserwacje planetoidy 2009KK
z okresu:
2009 05 17.25987 do 2009 06 02.24985 
obliczyłem ponownie jedna prognozowana startowa orbite zderzeniowa  z rms=0.4457" do roku 2038.
Epoka JD2455000.5=2009/06/18 TDB
klon= 13522 mozliwe zderzenie:  2022/05/29.761  z prawdop.    9.55E-05
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.50822190025351E+00 0.457906405448268  18.3154118397764  68.1799049625282 247.2417164555164 337.9458591354546
! RMS    2.60184E-03   1.14315E-03   3.98799E-02   2.67527E-02   4.39427E-03   7.29046E-02
*************
2009KK
W oparciu o 83 astrometryczne obserwacje planetoidy 2009KK
z okresu:
2009 05 17.25987 do 2009 05 28.28729
obliczyłem ponownie dwie prognozowane startowe orbity zderzeniowe  z rms=0.456" do roku 2038.
Wszedzie epoka JD2455000.5=2009/06/18 TDB
klon= 13922 mozliwe zderzenie:  2022/05/29.761  z prawdop.    5.68E-05
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.50822159072279E+00 0.457903771136679  18.3151465633472  68.1800904821032 247.2410224177490 337.9460468827328
! RMS    3.85465E-03   1.70584E-03   5.98486E-02   4.00812E-02   1.05909E-02   1.07310E-01
klon= 2201 mozliwe zderzenie:  2037/05/29.621  z prawdop.    8.23E-10
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.49481259629424E+00 0.451898855553744  18.1044642397501  68.3211992337925 247.2166242488156 337.5669877121617
! RMS    3.77250E-03   1.71008E-03   6.00686E-02   4.02198E-02   1.05374E-02   1.08341E-01
Znalazlem calkiem nowe prognozowane zderzenie na 2037 r!
Asteroida dobrze trzyma sie na kursie kolizyjnym z Ziemia. 
Chyba az za dobrze, ale ostatnie obserwacje sa tylko ze Spacewatcha II.
*************
2009KK
W oparciu o 65 astrometrycznych obserwacji planetoidy 2009KK
z okresu:
2009 05 17.25987 do 2009 05 23.12933
obliczyłem jej pięć prognozowanych startowych orbit zderzeniowych z rms=0.429" do roku 2038.
Wszedzie epoka JD2455000.5=2009/06/18 TDB
klon= 12901 mozliwe zderzenie:  2022/05/29.768  z prawdop.    3.04E-05
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.50822721157473E+00 0.457726974776083  18.3018998278462  68.1878763169243 247.1973064182288 337.9587786760616
! RMS    1.08518E-02   4.82628E-03   1.69268E-01   1.13038E-01   4.09391E-02   3.01004E-01
klon= 18278 mozliwe zderzenie:  2026/05/29.577  z prawdop.    1.60E-06
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.52605010019111E+00 0.465527730161318  18.5749660319441  68.0053937752377 247.2363686596734 338.4429780425552
! RMS    1.12485E-02   4.84855E-03   1.69833E-01   1.13454E-01   4.13139E-02   2.99618E-01
klon= 898 mozliwe zderzenie:  2034/05/30.157  z prawdop.    6.38E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.47067187004742E+00 0.440453081707612  17.6958695961948  68.5926152142675 247.1135216954677 336.8705829185224
! RMS    1.00185E-02   4.76943E-03   1.67791E-01   1.11941E-01   4.00138E-02   3.03625E-01
klon= 5684 mozliwe zderzenie:  2038/05/29.997  z prawdop.    1.36E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.48528784535987E+00 0.447316128823236  17.9368830916042  68.4317009020195 247.1463266805760 337.3055951154861
! RMS    1.03426E-02   4.79335E-03   1.68418E-01   1.12407E-01   4.03969E-02   3.02663E-01
klon= 6516 mozliwe zderzenie:  2038/05/29.957  z prawdop.    8.26E-09
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.48787651438361E+00 0.448512645767134  17.9788697275036  68.4036615095048 247.1521137006617 337.3810745711706
! RMS    1.04000E-02   4.79733E-03   1.68522E-01   1.12485E-01   4.04616E-02   3.02485E-01

Oto wynik propagacji: dwie drogi do zderzen w 2038 r.
klon= 5684 mozliwe zderzenie:  2038/05/29.997  z prawdop.    1.36E-07
 VA number          341  propagated
 Close approach to MARS on 2013/07/11.76617 56484.76617 MJD at 0.06160677 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2038/05/30.00343 65573.00343 MJD at 0.00009756 AU.
klon= 6516 mozliwe zderzenie:  2038/05/29.957  z prawdop.    8.26E-09
 VA number          391  propagated
 Close approach to EARTH on 2029/05/29.36812 62285.36812 MJD at 0.00583571 AU.
 Close approach to EARTH on 2038/05/26.99462 65569.99462 MJD at 0.04718348 AU.
Drugie zderzenie jest trudniejsze, bo planetoida przechodzi 
przez 'dziurke od klucza' w 2029 r.
*************
200JF1
W oparciu o 25 astrometrycznych obserwacji planetoidy 2009JF1 
z okresu:
2009-May-04.42059 to 2009-May-05.659412
obliczyłem
jej orbitę zderzeniową na date zderzenia: 2022/05/06.342,
z prawdopodobienstwem zderzenia 3.14E-04,
oraz parametry:
 mass, impact velocity, energy
 2.77D+06 kg 26.40 km/s  2.30D-01 MT.
Orbita zderzeniowa(u mnie ma nr 21)
STARTOWA
epoka JD2455000.5=2009/06/18 TDB
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.89035131977362E+00 0.739006891620185   6.1455026534676  45.9809323077144 280.9069406941597 358.3527005969918
 MAG  27.134  0.150
! RMS    1.38648E-03   2.43208E-04   2.14411E-03   4.17181E-05   3.18151E-04   5.47980E-03
Ten klon planetoidy ma zbliżenie z Wenus:
Close approach to VENUS on 2019/10/20.24542 at 0.04751170 AU.
TUZ PRZED ZDERZENIEM
epoka JD2459698.5=2022/04/29 TDB
1.890407169232015 .7380000565330624 6.149268716858823 45.52219838975184  281.4380419028384 339.1799625575736
U mnie pieknie trafia w Ziemie w odleglosci 0.00000509 AU od srodka Ziemi, czyli ok. 761 km.
*************
With the use of the OrbFit 4.0 software it is possible 
to predict position of asteroid 2007RY19 on the sky.
There are orbital elements of 10 clones of asteroid for epoch MJD55000.0,
i.e. 2009-June-18.0 TDB for negative sigma_LOV for 3 sigma:
 no       a      e      I[rd]    Omeg[rd]    omeg[rd]    mean.an[rd]
     1  1.1019655645090316  0.2479737036453193  0.2154601439360002  6.1509851877662935  1.7345941461900649  2.0819709420868300
     2  1.1024305809331165  0.2483938865152034  0.2158411877563650  6.1511053827590665  1.7339876042175399  2.0773609235026740
     3  1.1028887250925239  0.2488068994323619  0.2162156364757923  6.1512236774114948  1.7333908889324654  2.0728208053597879
     4  1.1033495443837535  0.2492213684043577  0.2165913240761729  6.1513425312612133  1.7327915761020707  2.0682558609033803
     5  1.1038130480608610  0.2496372906968486  0.2169682574671638  6.1514619354825388  1.7321896976461284  2.0636659484563689
     6  1.1042792430505362  0.2500546612296566  0.2173464403114125  6.1515818790310899  1.7315852943579397  2.0590509583528451
     7  1.1047481422102259  0.2504734799990666  0.2177258796822688  6.1517023509285540  1.7309784046121903  2.0544107317590434
     8  1.1052197575450278  0.2508937460111995  0.2181065805189215  6.1518233386874703  1.7303690725530219  2.0497451282640782
     9  1.1056941075830840  0.2513154638732668  0.2184885515713166  6.1519448303839921  1.7297573379185911  2.0450539531746479
    10  1.1061712054432198  0.2517386331875273  0.2188717957868087  6.1520668117838104  1.7291432507887308  2.0403370756533517
and corresponding geocentric ephemerides for 2009/05/12 23:00 UTC:
  1   9 31 48.7  - 2 47 17.2 23.50
  2   9 31  5.0  - 2 33  7.6 23.51
  3   9 30 22.0  - 2 19 16.9 23.52
  4   9 29 39.0  - 2  5 27.5 23.53
  5   9 28 55.8  - 1 51 39.5 23.54
  6   9 28 12.4  - 1 37 52.8 23.55
  7   9 27 29.0  - 1 24  7.4 23.56
  8   9 26 45.4  - 1 10 23.3 23.57
  9   9 26  1.6  - 0 56 40.5 23.58
 10   9 25 17.7  - 0 42 59.0 23.59
PS. Stad wynika, jak trudno odnalezc polozenie tej planetoidy na niebie. Moze byc zgubiona.
*******************************
Lista 11 prognozowanych startowych orbit zderzeniowych planetoidy 
2009FJ do 2110 r. wraz z bledami ich obliczenia.
Observations from 2009-03-17.24376 to 2009-04-05.29170
Observations: number (discarded) 126 (7) 
Sa nowe obserwacje ale niewiele zmieniaja rozwiazania zderzeniowe.
...
rms of nominal orbit = 5.79513E-01"

Epoch JD2455000.5=2009-June-18.0 TDB

klon=7281: mozliwe zderzenie: 2058/03/13.789 z prawdop.   3.84E-05
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.20061902273646E+00 0.567404607275080   0.8915884972697 353.6453176783613 150.6149307323342  35.5739037655478
! RMS    1.81341E-03   3.64310E-04   4.26750E-04   4.72626E-04   1.37826E-04   4.48470E-02
 
klon=17400: mozliwe zderzenie: 2065/03/14.038 z prawdop.   3.27E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.20800455578186E+00 0.568883235849474   0.8933179697455 353.6434231251079 150.6146555377395  35.3920335999664
! RMS    1.83585E-03   3.66291E-04   4.28457E-04   4.74970E-04   1.39230E-04   4.50140E-02
 
klon=7268: mozliwe zderzenie: 2068/03/13.419 z prawdop.   6.08E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.20060959286081E+00 0.567402712840721   0.8915862798688 353.6453201061177 150.6149310788732  35.5741369782043
! RMS    1.81343E-03   3.64319E-04   4.26761E-04   4.72637E-04   1.37825E-04   4.48482E-02
 
klon=2452: mozliwe zderzenie: 2084/03/10.052 z prawdop.   1.28E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.19712633228585E+00 0.566701793391531   0.8907655881140 353.6462184246997 150.6150582283613  35.6604579153758
! RMS    1.80291E-03   3.63386E-04   4.25957E-04   4.71531E-04   1.37175E-04   4.47694E-02
 
klon=3184: mozliwe zderzenie: 2084/03/10.102 z prawdop.   1.54E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.19765445735464E+00 0.566808212192355   0.8908902273906 353.6460820255476 150.6150390606728  35.6473475514550
! RMS    1.80463E-03   3.63552E-04   4.26107E-04   4.71730E-04   1.37275E-04   4.47844E-02
 
klon=3738: mozliwe zderzenie: 2084/03/09.924 z prawdop.   3.15E-08
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.19805446960730E+00 0.566888780913117   0.8909845821541 353.6459787612899 150.6150245163098  35.6374228784182
! RMS    1.80567E-03   3.63626E-04   4.26161E-04   4.71815E-04   1.37346E-04   4.47894E-02
 
klon=7382: mozliwe zderzenie: 2084/03/09.956 z prawdop.   1.69E-06
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.20069229127542E+00 0.567419326141533   0.8916057252967 353.6452988158713 150.6149280393577  35.5720918299026
! RMS    1.81376E-03   3.64356E-04   4.26797E-04   4.72681E-04   1.37842E-04   4.48519E-02
 
klon=9159: mozliwe zderzenie: 2088/03/13.528 z prawdop.   4.15E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.20198285865945E+00 0.567678422410547   0.8919089502695 353.6449667903509 150.6148804816622  35.5402013429008
! RMS    1.81765E-03   3.64698E-04   4.27091E-04   4.73086E-04   1.38085E-04   4.48806E-02
 
klon=8235: mozliwe zderzenie: 2094/03/13.905 z prawdop.   8.54E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.20131144600289E+00 0.567543667525240   0.8917512536905 353.6451394728428 150.6149052523988  35.5567862651418
! RMS    1.81570E-03   3.64535E-04   4.26956E-04   4.72895E-04   1.37960E-04   4.48675E-02
 
klon=17928: mozliwe zderzenie: 2104/03/14.418 z prawdop.   6.88E-09
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.20839242861351E+00 0.568960609638826   0.8934084018319 353.6433240055136 150.6146408787766  35.3825252180785
! RMS    1.83714E-03   3.66414E-04   4.28570E-04   4.75119E-04   1.39306E-04   4.50253E-02
 
klon=3796: mozliwe zderzenie: 2107/03/12.352 z prawdop.   1.25E-07
! Keplerian elements: a e i long. node arg. peric. mean anomaly
 KEP   2.19809636333621E+00 0.566897217222554   0.8909944615686 353.6459679486580 150.6150229917490  35.6363837241300
! RMS    1.80575E-03   3.63629E-04   4.26160E-04   4.71817E-04   1.37353E-04   4.47892E-02
 
*************
Oto lista 4. prognozowanych startowych orbit zderzeniowych planetoidy 
2009BD do 2110 r. 
obserwacje od 2009-01-16.27641 do 2009-01-26.027773
          razem      =  119
          wybranych  =  118
rms orbity nominalnej = 4.61902E-01"
Dla każdej orbity podałem epokę startową: epoka JD2454800.5=2008/11/30.
klon= 8057 mozliwe zderzenie:  2073/05/22.705  z prawdop.    6.92E-05
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.00737717251063E+00 0.027777129097910   1.4722268122911 117.0694204308428  60.0047842708258 255.7371503784434
! RMS    1.39812E-07   2.71254E-06   7.14755E-05   2.42145E-04   4.08951E-03   3.47454E-03
 
klon= 10718 mozliwe zderzenie:  2076/05/06.716  z prawdop.    1.55E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.00737728412761E+00 0.027777958839574   1.4722457253540 117.0693498511500  60.0057905346482 255.7363291996891
! RMS    1.39826E-07   2.71264E-06   7.14778E-05   2.42134E-04   4.08937E-03   3.47439E-03
 
klon= 10650 mozliwe zderzenie:  2077/05/04.657  z prawdop.    3.21E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.00737728127518E+00 0.027777937624200   1.4722452417268 117.0693516557658  60.0057648028635 255.7363501991143
! RMS    1.39826E-07   2.71264E-06   7.14778E-05   2.42135E-04   4.08937E-03   3.47439E-03
 
klon= 10633 mozliwe zderzenie:  2081/05/04.116  z prawdop.    2.79E-07
! Keplerian elements: a  e  i  long. node  arg. peric.  mean anomaly
 KEP   1.00737728056207E+00 0.027777932320473   1.4722451208228 117.0693521069096  60.0057583700997 255.7363554488146
! RMS    1.39826E-07   2.71264E-06   7.14778E-05   2.42135E-04   4.08937E-03   3.47439E-03
 Objaśnienie:
klon - nr kolejny klonu z wiazki na ogol 10 tys. lub 20 tys. klonow, ktorych orbity dopasowane sa do obserwacji z bledem najwyzej 10-20%   wiekszym niz blad orbity nominalnej, czyli orbity najbardziej prawdopodobnej.
Dla kazdego keplerowskiego elementu orbitalnego podano jego wartosc oraz blad obliczenia (RMS). Oznaczenia: a- polos wielka orbity wyrazona w jednostkach astronomicznych, e - mimosrod orbity, i - nachylenie orbity do plaszczyzny ekliptyki, long. node - dlugosc wezla wstepujacego, peric. - argument peryhelium, mean anomaly - anomalia srednia. Trzy ostatnie parametry orbity podane sa w stopniach.
******************
Planetoida 2009BR5
******************
Obliczenia wykonano 2009/02/28 w oparciu o 34 obserwacje planetoidy:
Analysis based on
34 observations spanning 10.855 days
(2009-Jan-20.45513 to 2009-Jan-31.3098).
Szukano zderzen do 2082 r.
nowym programem OrbFit ver. 4.0
efemerydy planet DE405, bez perturbujacych planetoid, bez uwzglednienia efektow Yarkovskiego, dla sigma=3, 1201 klonow wygenerowano, a nastepnie 10001 celem obliczenia
orbity zderzeniowej. Odnaleziono ja dla sigma=0.0005 dla orbity nr 91 sposrod 141 klonow.
Obliczylem tylko jedno mozliwe zderzenie tej planetoidy z Ziemia w 2059 r. i orbite zderzeniowa dla tej daty:

  risk case analysed
 b_e, U    1.17328635200110        246.783587723366     
 Impact Probability   1.795180014605023E-007
  risk case analysed for Palermo scale
 mass, impact velocity, energy
 2.81D+09 kg 21.37 km/s  1.53D+02 MT
  expected E, background prob, ratio, scale value
 2.75D-05 MT  5.36D-04 backgr  6.61D-06 ratio  -5.18 scale
	**ORBITA ZDERZENIOWA**
klon=,1382,mozliwe zderzenie: ,2059/07/21.281, z prawdop. ,  1.80E-07
START
epoka JD 2454800 = 2008/11/30
! Keplerian elements: a, e, i, long. node, arg. peric., mean anomaly
 KEP   1.98249477918827E+00 0.650590851962873   3.7882437652298 300.7880770215170 277.3909238219202 319.8107550705482
! RMS    1.91170E-02   3.75322E-03   2.11340E-02   3.16801E-02   4.96979E-02   6.20315E-01

  orbit           91 (impact)
 Close approach to EARTH on 2009/02/06.59395 54868.59395 MJD at 0.07069627 AU.
 Close approach to VENUS on 2020/05/28.21084 58997.21084 MJD at 0.05396385 AU.
 Close approach to MARS on 2026/03/04.15977 61103.15977 MJD at 0.08585123 AU.

7 DAYS BEFORE IMPACT
 elements at time  73288.0 (MJD) = JD 2473288.5
 no       a      e      I[rd]    Omeg[rd]    omeg[rd]    mean.an[rd]
    91  1.9788642177608213  0.6514709601757663  0.0665107599334707  5.1957352906473977  4.9001146670077720  0.2492838143326512

  orbit           91
 Close approach to EARTH on 2059/07/21.28172 73295.28172 MJD at 0.00004262 AU - IMPACT!

orbita nominalna:
Residual norm =  5.64661E-01"
Chi2 threshold =  1.14697E+00
orbita zderzeniowa:
1 RMS residuals =  6.2842D-01"